Rupiah Weakens Amid Uncertainty Over Fed Rate Cuts and Gold Prices

Jakarta, VIVA – The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is predicted to remain volatile, closing weaker in today’s trading session.

Based on data from the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) published by Bank Indonesia, the rupiah stood at Rp 16,844 per dollar on Friday, 13 February 2026. This represented a weakening of 18 points from the previous rate of Rp 16,826 recorded on Thursday, 12 February 2026.

Meanwhile, in spot market trading on Wednesday, 18 February 2026, as of 09:02 Western Indonesian Time (WIB), the rupiah was transacted at Rp 16,863 per US dollar. This position weakened by 26 points, or 0.15 per cent, from the previous level of Rp 16,837 per dollar.

Economic and money market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said that uncertainty surrounding future US interest rate cuts has become the primary burden on metal prices, particularly after payroll data showed some signs of resilience in the labour market in January. The US dollar recovered from weekly lows following non-farm payroll data released on Wednesday.

The focus is now entirely on US consumer price index inflation data for January 2026, due to be released on Friday this week, for further clues about the world’s largest economy.

“Labour market strength and inflation are the two biggest considerations for the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates,” Ibrahim said in his daily research note, quoted on Wednesday, 18 February 2026.

Markets broadly expect both headline and core CPI to cool in January 2026. However, January figures have consistently surprised to the upside over the past four years, making markets wary of hawkish readings.

Additionally, investors assessed that geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased after Donald Trump said negotiations on a potential nuclear deal with Iran could take up to one month.

The prospect of prolonged negotiations has reduced immediate concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East, dampening the geopolitical risk premium that had previously escalated.

Meanwhile, tensions in Europe have reignited after Ukrainian drone strikes caused a fire at a Lukoil oil refinery near Ukhta in Russia’s north-western Komi Republic, according to regional head Rostislav Goldshtein, speaking last Thursday.