Rupiah Weakens 0.11 Percent to Rp 17,002 per US Dollar
JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in the spot market weakened at the close of trading on Thursday (2/4/2026). The rupiah depreciated by 19 points or 0.11 percent to Rp 17,002 per US dollar.
Currency and Commodities Analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi assessed that the rupiah’s weakening today was caused by rising tensions in the Middle East war. This was particularly after US President Donald Trump affirmed that attacks on Iran would continue in the coming weeks.
In a speech broadcast nationally, Trump stated that the US military would continue to target Iran’s energy and oil facilities, without providing a specific timeline to end the conflict. He even emphasised that attacks would be carried out aggressively over the next two to three weeks, although he had previously opened the possibility of halting the conflict without a formal agreement.
“President Donald Trump said the United States will continue to attack Iran, including energy and oil targets, for the next few weeks, and did not commit to a specific timeframe to end the war,” Ibrahim told reporters.
Most recently, an oil tanker chartered by QatarEnergy was reported to have been hit by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters, according to statements from local defence authorities.
On the other hand, market players are also awaiting several key US economic data releases. Weekly initial jobless claims are scheduled for release soon, followed by non-farm payroll (NFP) data on Friday, which will serve as the main indicator for future monetary policy direction.
Domestically, pressure is also beginning to be felt on the government’s fiscal position. The state budget deficit is estimated to widen from the initial target in line with rising global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.
The government notes that every $1 increase in oil prices per barrel has the potential to add up to Rp 6 trillion to the deficit from the initial target of Rp 689.1 trillion or 2.68 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Nevertheless, the government believes the deficit can still be kept below the safe limit of 3 percent of GDP, although it could widen to approach 2.9 percent if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel throughout the year.
The basic assumption for the 2026 state budget sets the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) at $70 per barrel.
To maintain fiscal stability, the government will pursue savings measures, including gradual efficiency in spending by ministries and agencies, as well as utilisation of more budget balances (SAL) to cover potential deficit widening.