Rupiah Under Pressure Near Rp17,000 per US Dollar, Here's the Culprit

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The rupiah exchange rate weakened at the close of trading on Friday (6 March 2026). The rupiah depreciated by 20 points, or 0.12 percent, to Rp 16,925 per US dollar. Currency and commodities analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said the rupiah’s weakness was triggered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has been ongoing for seven days without signs of abating. Reports of missile strikes and retaliatory actions have occurred in several strategic regions, heightening market concerns. ‘The fighting between the US, Israel, and Iran has intensified over the past week, with missile strikes and retaliatory attacks spreading across the region and increasing concerns about disruptions to global energy supply,’ Ibrahim said when contacted by Kompas.com on Friday. Uncertainty also rose after United States President Donald Trump expressed a desire to participate in determining the next leader of Iran after the conflict ends. Ibrahim said this statement adds to political uncertainty in the Middle East. As the intensity of the conflict escalates, world oil prices have continued to rise. The increase is driven by risks to energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Gulf region. The surge in oil prices has raised concerns about potential waves of global inflation. The situation could make it harder for central banks around the world, including the Federal Reserve or the US central bank, to determine the direction of monetary policy. Higher energy prices could fuel inflation, meaning central banks would be cautious about cutting interest rates in the near term. The data is seen as important because it provides a picture of the labour market and signals the direction of Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. ‘Investors are now turning their attention to the US February non-farm payrolls data, which will be released on Friday, as it could provide fresh signals about the strength of the labour market and the direction of monetary policy,’ Ibrahim said. He added that if the labour data comes in stronger than expected, the chances of the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts would grow. ‘A figure stronger than expected could reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve has room to delay cutting rates,’ he said.