Rupiah under pressure, approaching Rp 17,000 per US dollar

The rupiah exchange rate came under pressure in the spot market at the opening of trading on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. The Garuda currency weakened to nearly Rp 17,000 per US dollar. According to Bloomberg data at 09:23 WIB, the rupiah fell 0.29% to Rp 16,921 per US dollar. Lukman Leong, a currency analyst at Doo Financial Futures, said the rupiah is still under pressure due to risk-off sentiment triggered by the escalation of the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The geopolitical tensions have driven global investors to shun risk assets, including currencies of developing countries like the rupiah, and to shift to assets considered safer such as the US dollar. In addition to geopolitical factors, the rise in global crude oil prices is also a market concern. The Middle East conflict could disrupt global energy supplies and push oil prices higher. This could weigh on the global economy, including Indonesia which still imports part of its energy needs. The pressure could widen the energy deficit and raise domestic inflation risk. “The rise in crude oil prices is also feared to burden the global economy including Indonesia,” he said. In that situation, the movement of the rupiah against the US dollar is expected to remain limited with a tendency to weaken. He forecasts the rupiah will be in the range Rp 16,800 to Rp 16,950 per US dollar.