Rupiah Today 10 March 2026: Opens Stronger, Still Shadowed by Middle East Tensions
The rupiah’s exchange rate opened stronger on Tuesday in Jakarta, appreciating 63 basis points or 0.37 per cent to Rp16,886 per US dollar, compared to the previous close at Rp16,949 per dollar.
Head Economist at Permata Bank Josua Pardede assessed that room for rupiah strengthening remains limited as markets remain sensitive to Middle Eastern conflict developments and movements in global oil prices. According to him, the rupiah still faces potential pressure during today’s trading, though weakness is estimated to remain within the range of Rp16,825 to Rp16,975 per dollar.
“The Rp17,000 per dollar level has now become an important psychological threshold, as numerous market projections also position this level as the nearest pressure threshold if sentiment does not improve,” said Josua in Jakarta.
Josua explained that global factors remain the primary pressure on the rupiah. Conflict in the Middle East or West Asia drove oil price spikes that briefly breached US$115 per barrel during Asian trading sessions and were back above US$100 per barrel on Monday (9 March).
In circumstances of global uncertainty, the US dollar tends to strengthen as it is considered a safer asset. This condition is further exacerbated by diminished market expectations of interest rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve.
In the Asian region, the trend is relatively uniform, with weakness in regional currencies resulting from oil price increases, US dollar strengthening, and heightened market caution.
Pressure from Domestic Factors
Domestically, the rupiah also faces pressure from several economic indicators. The budget deficit in February 2026 widened to 0.50 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Additionally, yields on government securities have increased, foreign investor ownership of government securities has declined, and consumer confidence indices show slight weakness. However, Bank Indonesia is assessed as continuing efforts to maintain exchange rate stability by prioritising policies that support rupiah strengthening.
“Bank Indonesia remains focused on maintaining rupiah stability, so room for interest rate reductions is relatively limited,” said Josua.
Josua assessed that if geopolitical conflict persists longer, pressure on the rupiah could intensify. Prolonged conflict can cause energy prices to remain elevated, increase import and logistics costs, and increase domestic inflation pressures. Additionally, such conditions also risk weakening the external and fiscal balance, and deterring foreign capital inflows into Indonesia’s financial markets.
Should this scenario occur, the rupiah could breach the Rp17,000 per dollar level and remain in a weak position for an extended period. In such circumstances, Bank Indonesia would likely maintain its benchmark interest rate and sustain monetary policy focused on exchange rate stability.
“The rupiah’s future direction is determined by two factors: how long the conflict persists and whether oil prices can convincingly return to lower levels,” concluded Josua.