Rupiah strengthens influenced by Indonesia's rising trade surplus

Jakarta (ANTARA) - The rupiah exchange rate strengthened by 1 point or 0.01 percent to Rp16,982 per US dollar on Thursday morning from the previous close at Rp16,983 per US dollar.

Head of Economics at Permata Bank Josua Pardede assessed that the rupiah’s strengthening was influenced by Indonesia’s increasing trade surplus.

“The trade surplus rose to US$1.27 billion in February 2026 from US$0.95 billion, supported by a decline in oil and gas imports,” he told ANTARA in Jakarta on Thursday.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded that Indonesia’s trade balance in February 2026 remained in surplus, resulting in a surplus in exports over imports for 70 consecutive months.

The cumulative trade balance surplus for the January to February 2026 period reached US$2.23 billion.

For March 2026 inflation, it slowed to 3.48 percent year-on-year (yoy) from 4.76 percent yoy, placing it within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range of 1.5-3.5 percent. This was driven by the fading low base effect (apparent percentage growth surge) and a decline in gold prices.

Looking at global sentiment, optimism regarding the potential end to the Middle East conflict continues to support financial markets.

Quoting Anadolu, US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran’s “new leadership” requested a ceasefire with Washington, but he stated that the US would only consider the request if the Strait of Hormuz is opened.

Spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Esmaeli Baqaei immediately denied Trump’s claim. He said that the statement that Tehran requested a ceasefire does not align with reality.

For US economic data, ADP Employment in the US increased to 62,000 in March 2026, exceeding expectations of 40,000, although slightly down from the previous 66,000.

Meanwhile, retail sales rebounded to 0.6 percent month-on-month (mom) in February 2026 from -0.1 percent mom, higher than the projected 0.5 percent mom.

On the other hand, manufacturing indicators showed mixed results, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI slightly declining from 52.4 to 52.3, while the ISM Manufacturing Index rose from 52.4 to 52.7.

Based on these factors, the rupiah is projected to move within the range of Rp16,900-Rp17,000 per US dollar.