Rupiah Slips Near Rp17,000 on 4 March 2026
The rupiah opened weaker on Wednesday, 4 March 2026, by 58 points or 0.34% to Rp16,930 per US dollar from the previous close of Rp16,872 per US dollar. Market watcher Ibrahim Assuaibi attributed the rupiah’s weakness to the rising escalation of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, Iran and Lebanon.
‘The air war between the US and Israel against Iran is widening, with Israel striking Lebanon and Iran retaliating with attacks on energy infrastructure in Gulf states and on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz,’ Ibrahim said in a statement from Jakarta on Tuesday.
The conflict has stoked concerns about the security of global energy distribution routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Ibrahim, several tanker and container ships have begun to avoid the route after insurers halted coverage for vessels passing through the area. Consequently, global oil and gas shipping rates have reportedly surged.
Concerns intensified after a senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the Strait of Hormuz was closed and warned that Iran would shoot at ships attempting to transit. ‘Around 20% of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz,’ Ibrahim said.
Despite external pressures, domestic data point to relatively positive developments. The Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) reported Indonesia’s January 2026 trade balance recorded a surplus of $0.95 billion, extending the 69-month run of surpluses since May 2020. ‘The January 2026 surplus was supported by a surplus in non-oil and gas commodities of $3.22 billion,’ Ibrahim added.
The Bank Indonesia reference rate via Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) also showed weakness. On the same day, JISDOR stood at Rp16,870 per US dollar, weaker than the previous level of Rp16,848 per US dollar.
External pressures from geopolitical tensions are expected to continue influencing the rupiah in the short term, especially if tensions in the Middle East continue to rise. The rupiah closed at Rp16,872 per US dollar on the day. Analysts advise monitoring the impact of the Straits of Hormuz tensions on the rupiah and Indonesia’s economy.