Rupiah Predicted to Weaken Next Week
The rupiah exchange rate weakened again at the close of trading on Friday, 8 May 2026. The rupiah depreciated on Friday and closed at 17,382 per US dollar, down 49 points.
The dollar exchange rate has continued to strengthen against the rupiah since the beginning of this week. Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data shows that the rupiah was recorded at 17,368 per US dollar on Monday, 4 May 2026, and briefly moved above the 17,400 per US dollar level on 5 and 6 May 2026.
Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, Ibrahim Assuabi, predicts that the Indonesian currency will move fluctuantly on Monday next week, 11 May 2026. “However, it will close weaker in the range of 17,380-17,430 per US$,” he stated in an official comment quoted on Saturday, 9 May 2026.
The rupiah’s weakening occurs alongside the strengthening of the dollar index. According to Ibrahim, the dollar’s strengthening against several currencies, including the rupiah, is happening amid the Middle East conflict, particularly between the United States and Iran. The US and Iran were nearly reaching an agreement that would end the fighting and allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully, but it postponed larger issues surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme.
“However, fighting has broken out again between the US and Iran, threatening the fragile ceasefire and destroying hopes for progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the main transit route for oil and gas,” he said.
On the domestic side, sentiment affecting the rupiah includes government debt, which as of 31 March 2026, has breached Rp9,920.42 trillion. This position rose nearly 3 percent from the level at the end of December 2025, which was Rp9,637.9 trillion. The government’s debt position by the end of the first quarter of 2026 is equivalent to 40.75 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
On one hand, the state budget deficit up to the first quarter has reached Rp240.1 trillion or 0.93 percent of GDP, with debt financing already realised at Rp258.7 trillion or 31.1 percent of GDP.
“State revenues, particularly taxation, are considered key after the rating agency warned Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa regarding the ratio of debt interest payments to GDP,” said Ibrahim.