Rupiah Predicted to Plunge to 17,150 per US Dollar Tomorrow, What is the Root Cause?
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The rupiah exchange rate is expected to remain volatile, in line with negative sentiment from the current geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East.
Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi assesses that the rupiah could face increasing pressure, touching the psychological level of Rp 17,150 per US dollar at the close of trading on Wednesday (8/4/2026).
For context, the rupiah exchange rate in the spot market was under pressure at the close of trading on Tuesday (7/4/2026). The rupiah weakened by 0.42 percent to Rp 17,105 per US dollar.
“For tomorrow’s trading (Wednesday), the rupiah currency will be volatile but close weaker in the range of Rp 17,100 - Rp 17,150 (per US dollar),” said Ibrahim.
“Investors are preparing for potential escalation in the Middle East ahead of the deadline set by US President Donald Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz,” he explained.
Disruptions to tanker traffic in recent weeks have tightened supply expectations and increased risk premiums across oil markets.
Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict are seen as showing no significant progress. Iran has rejected the US-backed proposal, which includes a 45-day ceasefire and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by further negotiations on lifting sanctions and reconstruction.
In contrast, Iran has put forward broader demands, including a permanent end to the conflict, binding security guarantees against future attacks, lifting of sanctions, and compensation for damages.
On the other hand, Trump has stated that the deadline is final. He warned that Iran’s failure to comply could trigger US military strikes on strategic infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges.
He even stated that Iran could be “eliminated” quickly, signalling rising risks of broader conflict escalation.
Investors are also awaiting the release of US inflation data on Friday, which will be an important indicator for the direction of interest rates by the US central bank or the Fed.