Rupiah Predicted to Breach Rp 17,550 per US Dollar This Week

The rupiah exchange rate breached the Rp 17,500 per US dollar level on Tuesday (12/5/2026), marking its highest point in history. This week, the Garuda currency is predicted to reach Rp 17,550 per US dollar amid heightened global geopolitical uncertainty and domestic economic conditions that are not yet strong enough to support the rupiah. Citing Bloomberg, the rupiah weakened by 115 points or 0.60 percent to close at Rp 17,529 per US dollar on Tuesday (12/5/2026). In the previous trading session, the rupiah was at Rp 17,414 per US dollar. “Today, the rupiah continues to weaken, having already touched Rp 17,500 per US dollar. The Rp 17,550 per US dollar level is likely to be reached this week,” stated currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi in his comments to reporters on Tuesday. Ibrahim explained that various factors are influencing the rupiah’s weakening, both external and internal sentiments. “For external sentiment, we know that the Middle East is heating up again following the US rejection of the proposal made by Iran, mediated by Pakistan and Qatar. This rejection has triggered new tensions because small-scale attacks are still occurring in the Strait of Hormuz. This means tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate,” he clarified. Although President Donald Trump stated that the war is over, in reality on the ground, mutual attacks are still ongoing. Separately, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is said to continue attacking Iran, including an attack in early April targeting a refinery on Lavan Island, Iran. “So, the UAE continues to carry out attacks to this day, even though they are not exposed internationally. But this indicates that the UAE, after withdrawing from OPEC member countries, continues to attack. It could be backed by the US,” Ibrahim speculated. “This is what has caused the US dollar index to experience significant strengthening again,” he added. The strengthening of the US dollar index has then led to a rise in crude oil prices, particularly Brent crude oil. This increase in oil prices subsequently impacts the transportation sector with increasingly expensive costs.