Rupiah Poised to Breach Rp 17,100 per US Dollar: What Are the Causes?

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate is projected to weaken at the start of next week, or on Monday (30/3/2026). The Garuda currency is poised to breach the Rp 17,100 per US dollar level.

The rupiah exchange rate in the spot market nearly touched the psychological level of Rp 17,000 per US dollar at the close of trading on Friday (27/3/2026). Based on Bloomberg data, the Garuda currency closed depreciated by 76 points or 0.45 percent to Rp 16,980 per US dollar.

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi assesses that the strengthening of Uncle Sam’s currency is the main factor weighing on the rupiah. The dollar index is expected to be in the range of 99.3 to 101.6 next week, with a tendency to strengthen in line with increasing demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty.

“The rupiah is most likely to continue experiencing weakening. I’ve already set the range, released yesterday on Friday. Please check it again; it’s most likely heading towards the Rp 17,100 per US dollar level, remember, Rp 17,100,” said Ibrahim to reporters on Sunday (29/3/2026).

Conflicts involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, as well as attacks on energy facilities in the region, have the potential to significantly reduce oil production. In fact, the reduction in production in the Middle East is said to reach up to 10 million barrels per day.

“So there’s a high likelihood of a quite significant decline in oil and gas production. Even the Middle East itself has experienced that reduction of 10 million barrels per day so far, that’s just the Middle East,” he explained.

“And on the other side, Ukraine is also carrying out attacks on oil and gas installations in Russia,” Ibrahim added.

From the US monetary policy side, domestic political dynamics are also influencing market direction. The declining public confidence in President Donald Trump amid aggressive geopolitical policies is seen as adding to the uncertainty.

In addition, market expectations regarding the direction of interest rates from the US central bank, the Fed, are also a focus. The anticipated change in leadership at the US central bank in the near future opens opportunities for policy changes, including the possibility of interest rate cuts even though inflation remains high.