Rupiah Opens Stagnant, US Dollar Holds at Rp17,190

The rupiah opened stagnant against the US dollar on the first trading day of the week, Monday (27 April 2026). According to Refinitiv data, the Garuda currency began trading unmoved from its previous close at Rp17,190 per US dollar. This movement came after the rupiah closed sharply stronger by 0.52% at Rp17,190 per US dollar on the previous trading day, Friday (24 April 2026). Meanwhile, the US dollar index or DXY was observed weakening slightly by 0.04% to 98.492 at 09:00 WIB. The rupiah’s movement today is expected to be heavily influenced by external sentiment, particularly the direction of the US dollar in global markets. Although the rupiah opened stronger, volatility remains possible as investors continue to monitor developments in the Middle East war. The US dollar itself started the early week trading with a tendency to strengthen after hopes of a peace agreement between the US and Iran faded once more. US President Donald Trump cancelled his envoy’s planned visit to Islamabad over the weekend. Trump stated that Iran could contact the US if it wishes to negotiate to end the war that has lasted about two months. This stance has made market participants cautious again, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. As a note, the US dollar was previously boosted by flows into safe-haven assets when the US-Israel war with Iran broke out at the end of February. However, some of that strengthening faded in April after hopes of a peace agreement emerged. In recent days, the US dollar has tended to stabilise as US-Iran talks stalled. Although a ceasefire temporarily quelled the fighting, there is no final agreement to end the war. This situation keeps global market participants cautious and potentially sustains demand for the US dollar as a safe asset. This dollar dynamic is crucial for the rupiah. When the dollar is sought by global investors again, emerging market currencies, including the rupiah, are usually more vulnerable to pressure. Conversely, if the dollar weakens, there is more room for the rupiah to strengthen. Besides the Middle East war, market focus this week is also on the agendas of major central banks worldwide. Investors will watch how policymakers view the war’s impact on inflation, economic growth, and interest rate directions. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its interest rate on Tuesday this week, but markets await signals on whether a rate hike could occur as soon as June. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (The Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) are also expected to hold rates steady. However, market participants still await their latest views on the war’s impact on the economy and future monetary policy directions. Domestically, Bank Indonesia (BI) made its decision last week. BI again held the BI Rate at 4.75% in the Board of Governors Meeting (RDG). This decision shows BI remains cautious amid rupiah pressures, global uncertainties, and inflation risks from energy price volatility.