Rupiah Forecast to Remain Above Rp 17,000 per US Dollar Amid Failed US-Iran Peace Talks

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The rupiah exchange rate is forecast to weaken further against the US dollar over the coming week, following the failure of negotiations between the US and Iran.

Currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi assesses that the Garuda currency will struggle to move from levels above Rp 17,000 per US dollar in the next week. In addition to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the rupiah’s weakening is driven by uncertainty over the direction of US monetary policy.

“The rupiah is likely to weaken further. The rupiah’s depreciation is quite likely to be significant. And it is likely to remain above the Rp 17,000 level,” Ibrahim told reporters on Sunday (12/4/2026).

“In trading over the next week, the US dollar is likely to widen significantly. Because I see its support at 97.00, and resistance at 100.900. What does that mean? There is a strong possibility that the range will widen to 97.000 and 101.00. That’s if we round it off, from 100.900,” he explained.

According to him, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the root cause of the rupiah’s exchange rate weakening. The tightening of this narrow shipping route directly disrupts global crude oil distribution, as it is one of the world’s main energy trade arteries.

The rise in oil prices then drives global inflation due to higher energy costs. In such conditions, central banks tend to maintain high interest rates for longer to curb inflation.

At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty causes global investors to shift to safe-haven assets like the US dollar. The increased demand for the dollar causes the index to strengthen and the rupiah to weaken.

However, with the failed negotiations and the conflict heating up again, the risk of supply disruptions will increase.

“But in the next two weeks’ pause, both the US, Israel, and Iran will consolidate if the ceasefire fails or is not extended, leading to open war once more,” Ibrahim elaborated.