Rupiah Continues to Weaken Due to Middle East Conflict

The exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar weakened during trading on Monday morning, 6 April 2026, in line with growing market concerns over the escalation of the Middle East conflict and the strengthening of the US dollar. The rupiah was recorded down 16 points or 0.09% to the level of Rp16,996 per US dollar, from the previous close at Rp16,980 per US dollar.

Currency analyst from Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, stated that the pressure on the rupiah is triggered by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region.

“The rupiah tends to weaken amid concerns over conflict escalation and the rise in crude oil prices,” he said.

The tensions intensified after Donald Trump warned of possible attacks on strategic infrastructure in Iran, as well as issuing an ultimatum regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

This situation has also driven up global crude oil prices. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price briefly touched $115 per barrel before correcting to around $112 per barrel.

On the other hand, the strengthening of the US dollar is also supported by US employment data that exceeded expectations. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data showed an addition of 178,000 jobs in March 2026, far surpassing market forecasts.

In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from the previous 4.4%, indicating a still solid labour market condition.

The combination of geopolitical factors and economic data has strengthened the US dollar index, thereby adding pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupiah.

With these conditions, the rupiah is projected to move in the range of Rp16,950 to Rp17,050 per US dollar in the short term.