Rupiah Consistently Bears the Brunt: Five Pieces of Evidence Speak
Jakarta – The value of the Indonesian rupiah has consistently weakened against the US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions over recent years.
According to Refinitiv data, at the close of trading on Monday (2 March 2026), the rupiah entered negative territory with a depreciation of 0.60% to the level of Rp16,860/USD. This position also represented the weakest level for the rupiah in the past two weeks.
Pressure on the rupiah became evident from the start of trading. The Garuda currency opened weaker by 0.30% at Rp16,810/USD, and continued to decline until the close of business in the afternoon.
This weakness occurred in response to market participants reacting to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, following attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran on Saturday (28 February 2026), which reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The joint US-Israel attack on 28 February 2026 triggered major upheaval in the region and immediately shook global market sentiment.
Additionally, Iran reportedly launched attacks against US assets in several neighbouring countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. This condition further increased market concerns regarding the risk of widening conflict.
For this reason, it is worth examining how the rupiah has moved during major geopolitical conflicts in recent years.
24 February 2022 – Russia Begins Invasion of Ukraine
Russia commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation, which was followed by missile strikes against several regions.
This event briefly triggered a spike in uncertainty in global financial markets, although its impact on the rupiah at that time was relatively limited.
On Thursday (24 February 2022), the rupiah weakened 0.31% to the level of Rp14,380/USD from the previous day’s position of Rp14,335/USD.
7 October 2023 – Israel Attacks Hamas
In this geopolitical conflict, the rupiah was notably affected. This was evident in trading the following Monday (9 October 2023), when the rupiah weakened 0.51% to the level of Rp15,685/USD.
Within a week, pressure on the rupiah was also substantial. The rupiah weakened 1.21% and closed at the level of Rp15,870/USD.
The weakness continued until (23 October 2023), when the rupiah breached the psychological level of Rp15,900/USD. This position represented the weakest level since 8 April 2020, or approximately 3.5 years prior.
13 June 2025 – Israel Attacks Iran and Receives Retaliation
When Israel launched an attack on Iran in the early hours of Friday (13 June 2025), the rupiah also appeared under pressure. On that day, the rupiah closed weaker by 0.37% at the level of Rp16,290/USD.
Pressure subsequently continued in the following week. On a weekly basis, the rupiah weakened 0.55% and closed at the level of Rp16,380/USD.
5 January 2026 – United States Abducts President of Venezuela
In early January 2026, global markets were briefly shaken by a US military operation in Caracas that resulted in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
This event caused the rupiah to weaken 0.12% to the level of Rp16,735/USD. This was merely the second day of trading in 2026. Subsequently, the rupiah continued to experience weakness, such that within a week, the rupiah was already at the level of Rp16,860/USD, or weakening 0.87% on a weekly basis.