Rupiah and IHSG Open Weaker at the Start of This Week
The exchange rate of the rupiah and the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) weakened at the opening of trading at the start of this week on Monday, 11 May 2026. The rupiah weakened by 4 points to Rp 17,386 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Indonesia Stock Exchange IHSG weakened by 9.46 points to the level of 6,959.94.
Currency analyst at Doo Financial Futures, Lukman Leong, stated that the rupiah’s weakening was triggered by talks between the United States (US) and Iran that reached a deadlock. “The rupiah is expected to weaken in line with the strengthening dollar and global crude oil prices following signs that talks between the United States and Iran have reached a deadlock,” said Lukman, as quoted from Antara.
Meanwhile, from domestic sentiment, investors are awaiting consumer confidence survey data. Looking ahead, the rupiah is predicted to be in the range of Rp 17,300 to Rp 17,400 per US dollar.
Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT), Hari Rachmansyah, assessed that the IHSG’s movement over the next three trading days will be heavily influenced by global geopolitical dynamics and commodity royalty tariff policies.
In terms of global geopolitics, sentiments that could potentially influence include the prospect of the Russia-Ukraine war ending. Additionally, there are concerns about the potential hantavirus outbreak, although so far it has not significantly disrupted the market.
Data from the Kalshi prediction platform shows the probability of a hantavirus outbreak becoming a serious threat this year at only 21 percent. This figure indicates that market participants do not yet consider the issue a significant risk.
Then, global market attention is now focused on the summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with the Iran war issue expected to dominate the discussion agenda. “This situation could narrow the negotiation space for other crucial issues such as trade tariffs and rare earth supplies, so uncertainty on those two issues is likely to persist in the near term,” explained Hari.
Meanwhile, from the domestic side, there are several agendas and policy developments that market participants need to monitor in the near term. “The MSCI Indonesia rebalancing scheduled for 12 May 2026 is unlikely to introduce new entrants but still has the potential to trigger shifts in stock weights that could affect the overall market direction,” said Hari.
From the policy side, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) held a hearing on 8 May 2026 regarding proposals for changes to mining royalty tariffs for copper, tin, nickel, gold, and silver commodities. According to Hari, this policy is no longer just talk because it is targeted to take effect in June 2026.
He explained that among all affected commodities, gold records the most significant percentage increase in the lower tariff band, reaching up to 100 percent. This condition is seen as providing direct pressure amid high global gold prices.
Meanwhile, tin is considered the commodity most impacted overall because the tariff increase occurs at both ends of the royalty range. Hari assessed that pressure on the mining sector does not stop at the mining royalty increase alone.
“The discourse on implementing export duties and windfall tax currently being studied by the Ministry of Finance adds another layer of uncertainty, particularly for the nickel and coal subsectors, so overall mining sector volatility could persist in the short term,” he said.
Considering the overall sentiment landscape formed throughout this week, Hari assessed that the IHSG’s movement for the period 11-13 May 2026 has the potential to move mixed with a limited tendency. The MSCI rebalancing agenda on 12 May is seen as potentially triggering portfolio rotation that creates short-term volatility in large-cap stocks.