Rumoured End to Iran Conflict Triggers Steep Oil Price Collapse to US$87 per Barrel
Within a span of several days, oil prices surged sharply before falling in a manner rarely seen since the energy crisis of recent years. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been the catalyst, whilst discussions regarding releasing emergency global oil reserves have begun to shadow market direction.
According to Refinitiv data, Brent crude oil traded at US$87.95 per barrel on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 09:30 WIB, a slight increase from US$87.80 the previous day. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at US$83.76 per barrel, somewhat higher than US$83.45 on Tuesday.
However, looking back briefly reveals extremely volatile price movements. On 9 March, Brent surged to US$98.96, whilst WTI touched US$94.77. Even in intraday trading on Monday at the start of the week, oil prices briefly breached US$119 per barrel, the highest level since 2022, before sharply reversing course.
The dramatic decline occurred following signals that the Middle East conflict could potentially ease. US President Donald Trump stated that the war with Iran could end sooner than anticipated. This statement triggered massive profit-taking, causing oil prices to plummet more than 11% in a single day, the steepest decline since 2022.
Amidst this volatility, the market was startled by a report from the Wall Street Journal. According to Reuters, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has reportedly proposed releasing the largest strategic oil reserves in the organisation’s history to address potential supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict.
Should this plan actually be implemented, the volume could even exceed the 182 million barrels released by IEA member countries in 2022 when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shook global energy markets.
This measure is currently being discussed among leading developed nation leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to hold a virtual meeting with G7 leaders on Wednesday to discuss the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy markets and the potential use of emergency reserves to curb price volatility.
On another front, supply disruptions continue. Drone attacks have been reported to have triggered a fire at the Ruwais refinery complex owned by Abu Dhabi’s oil company, forcing the facility to temporarily shut down. This incident represents one of the latest disruptions to energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.
The primary concern remains the world’s most crucial energy corridor, the Strait of Hormuz. The US military has stated it has destroyed 16 Iranian vessels suspected of being used to lay mines in those waters. Washington has also warned that any mines placed in the shipping lane must be cleared immediately.
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital route for global energy distribution. Energy consultant Wood Mackenzie estimates that the current Gulf region conflict could potentially cut oil and oil product supplies by up to 15 million barrels per day from global markets. In a prolonged disruption scenario, oil prices could even be driven towards US$150 per barrel.
Meanwhile, producer nations are attempting to redirect distribution. Saudi Arabia has begun increasing shipments through the Yanbu port on the Red Sea to maintain exports. However, the additional volume remains far short of compensating for reduced flow through the Hormuz route.
On the demand side, the market has also received strengthening signals. According to Reuters, citing American Petroleum Institute data, inventories of crude oil, petrol and distillate in the United States fell in the previous week. This stock decline reflects sustained strong energy consumption.