Rowing between the cliffs: RI and post-Sept.11

Siswo Pramono PhD Graduate Student in Political Science and International Relations The Australian National University Canberra

The U.S.-led war on terror is not a war between the West and Islam; however, as a country with the largest Muslim population in the world, Indonesia cannot escape the impact of this war.

As the U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan failed to apprehend Osama bin Laden, the hunt for groups and individuals suspected of having links with al-Qaeda began in Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the (Southern) Philippines. By then Southeast Asia was considered by U.S. strategists as the second front in the war on terror.

The campaign resulted in the arrests of some Indonesian citizens and leaders of militant groups. Not many of the cases can be brought to trial, reportedly because of a lack of evidence. This second front in the war on terror then moved from Southeast Asia to the Gulf.

The Gulf, for the U.S., represents a two-fold issue. The issue of dismantling Iraqi weapons of mass destruction has been lingering for the last four years. But the decision to topple Saddam Hussein was made about six months ago. If the U.S. proceeds with its goal of a regime change in Iraq, Indonesia will need to brace itself against another impact from the war on terror.

Indonesia needs to row between the cliffs, between principle and practical policy, between domestic and international pressure.

There is contention between the UN Charter's principle of a peaceful means to resolve a conflict and U.S. politics. While Indonesia should help promote such a principle, it cannot escape the political reality of the UN Security Council.

The position of each permanent member on the Council is ambivalent. The United Kingdom, despite its domestic opposition, will likely join, albeit for a limited term, a military strike on Iraq. And the French would not likely challenge the States' determination.

Russia will give priority to establishing better relations, economic and otherwise, with the U.S. and the West, then to protect Iraq. Russia has faced the acute problem of Muslim insurgency in Chechnya.

China, too, despite the rift with the U.S. over Taiwan, will unlikely take an antagonistic position for two reasons. China has been bothered by the issue of Muslim insurgency in some of its regions. And the U.S. has encircled China with its current engagements in Afghanistan, India, Pakistan and Southeast Asia.

As such, the U.S. might wage a war against Iraq without worrying much about the formal position of the UN Security Council.

The Arab states are more united than before in resisting the U.S. strike on Iraq. But the major powers in the Asia-Pacific region, most notably Australia and Japan, will likely side with the U.S.

The Indonesian government will also face mounting pressure at home. Domestic politics will compel the government to assert its political position regarding the U.S. strategy of a regime change in Iraq. Experience during the U.S.-led invasion in Afghanistan proved how difficult that was.

The government needs to anticipate the worst case scenario in accordance with the principles of democracy and the rule of law. While debates about U.S. foreign policy on Iraq represent a healthy public discourse, any attempt to intimidate expatriates or threaten foreign institutions in Indonesia needs to be prevented.

While harsh criticism against the U.S. policy on Iraq or anti- American statements issued by militant groups or individuals should not be considered a crime, hate crime, which is aimed at a particular nationality, religion or race, needs to be dealt with according to the law.

Radical ideas, religious or otherwise, should be allowed as long as they are expressed within the corridor of democracy and provided that they do not materialize in a way that violates the law.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri's diplomacy during the U.S.- led invasion in Afghanistan was effective and this strategy can be employed again to mitigate the impact that the U.S. policy on Iraq will have on Indonesia. The strategy needs to reconcile principle with practical policy; and hence accommodate both international and domestic pressure.

Indonesia needs to push for peaceful ways to dismantle Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. This solution would save millions of Iraqis and promote stability in the Gulf and beyond.

This principle, however, needs to be implemented in a practical policy, taking into account our efforts to survive the multidimensional crisis. Diplomacy needs to reconcile Indonesia's effort to promote peace and stability in Southeast Asia and the Middle East with the country's economic interests in the Asia- Pacific, particularly North America, and Western Europe.

The writer works at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.