Rising Oil Prices Prompt Purbaya to Evaluate Budget Adjustments Over Next Month
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has allocated one month to evaluate potential adjustments to Indonesia’s State Budget and Revenue (APBN) due to surging global oil prices.
“I will conduct an evaluation over the coming month to see what happens and we will make adjustments as necessary,” Purbaya told journalists in Jakarta on Monday.
Brent crude oil prices have reached 118 dollars per barrel for the first time since 17 June 2022, according to Sputnik reports. This represents a significant increase compared to January 2026 averages, where Brent (ICE) traded at 64 dollars per barrel and US WTI at 57.87 dollars per barrel.
The Finance Minister pledged to continuously monitor oil price developments and make necessary decisions at the appropriate time. He emphasised that current average oil price developments remain below the APBN’s maximum capacity threshold.
“Do not jump to conclusions that prices will stay at 100 dollars continuously. We will conduct assessments from time to time. The calculations change constantly according to circumstances—the average has not reached 100 dollars yet. It is still below that, so let us remain calm,” Purbaya explained.
The Finance Minister assessed that the impact of surging global oil prices has not yet dealt a significant blow to domestic economic activities. He maintained that the national economy continues to demonstrate expansive performance.
“Clearly, we are quite capable. The adjustments we make will not disrupt economic growth momentum,” he stated.
According to budget sensitivity analysis for 2026, each one-dollar increase in Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) per barrel has the potential to add up to 6.8 trillion rupiah to the budget deficit. Ministry of Finance calculations indicate that the APBN deficit could reach 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) if oil prices remain at 92 dollars per barrel throughout the year without government intervention.
However, Purbaya assured that the government would implement mitigation measures to prevent global oil price pressures from widening the APBN deficit.