Rising Coal and Aluminium Prices Signal Positive Outlook for Alamtri Group Performance
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO), PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk (ADMR), and PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk (AADI) face challenging near-term conditions following weak performance throughout 2025. ADRO experienced a 10.10 per cent year-on-year decline in operating revenue to US$1.87 billion, whilst net profit attributable to the parent entity fell 67.56 per cent to US$447.69 million. ADMR saw operating revenue drop 15.70 per cent to US$972.95 million, with net profit declining 37.89 per cent to US$271.21 million. Similarly, AADI recorded a 7.71 per cent decline in operating revenue to US$4.91 billion, whilst net profit fell 37.22 per cent to US$760.18 million.
The performance deterioration reflects multiple factors beyond commodity prices alone. Rising operational costs, production volume normalisation, and the substantial capital expenditure requirements of strategic transitions towards mineral downstream activities and renewable energy sectors have weighed on results. For ADRO and AADI, with significant exposure to thermal coal operations, the weakness in global coal prices has directly compressed revenues and profit margins. The slowdown in global demand, particularly from China and India, has necessitated more conservative production volume adjustments across operations.
ADMR faces particular challenges, as the company remains in a major investment phase for aluminium downstream projects through smelter and energy ecosystem development. This expansion phase has increased investment burdens, thereby pressuring profitability in the near term.
However, 2026 presents improved prospects as global coal prices recover due to energy crisis concerns and rising electricity demand across Asian economies. This coal price recovery could prove a significant positive catalyst for ADRO and AADI, given their substantial leverage to coal price movements. As mining cost structures remain relatively stable compared to selling prices, rising coal prices typically enable rapid margin recovery. Should these trends persist, ADMR’s downstream projects could deliver materially greater value-add compared to selling raw materials, thereby enhancing medium-term profitability.
Capital market observers recommend several strategies for Alamtri Group companies: maintaining production cost efficiency, sustaining sales volumes, and accelerating diversification into mineral downstream and energy sectors with more stable margins. Strengthening financial structures and disciplined capital expenditure discipline are equally critical to ensure sustainable expansion.
Equity strategists identify opportunities within the group’s shares for investors familiar with energy and commodity sector cycles. ADRO is recommended as a buy-on-weakness opportunity at Rp 2,300-Rp 2,340 per share, targeting Rp 2,550 as coal price rebound materialises. ADMR attracts investor interest at Rp 1,870-Rp 1,915 per share with medium-term targets around Rp 2,120, particularly if aluminium downstream sentiment strengthens. AADI is recommended as a speculative buy with targets around Rp 10,900 per share.