Rice Production Falls 4.02 Per Cent, BPS Estimates 12.2 Million Tonnes for February-April 2026

Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), through its Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics, Ateng Hartono, has projected national rice production for February-April 2026 at an estimated 12.23 million tonnes.

The figure represents a decline of 4.02 per cent year-on-year compared with the same period in the previous year. “Rice production potential for February through April 2026 is estimated at 12.23 million tonnes, down 0.51 million tonnes or 4.02 per cent,” Ateng said during a teleconference press briefing on Monday, 2 March 2026.

The projection aligns with estimated paddy production of 21.24 million tonnes of dried shelled grain (GKG) in the same period, representing a 4.04 per cent decline compared with the previous year.

This production decrease corresponds with anticipated paddy harvest area for February-April 2026, estimated at 3.92 million hectares (ha), a reduction of 0.16 million hectares compared with the same period last year.

However, Ateng noted that the estimated harvest area figure may still change based on current field observations, including factors such as pest attacks, flooding, drought conditions, harvest timing and other variables.

BPS data showed that actual paddy production in January 2026 actually increased compared with the same period in the previous year. Paddy harvest area in January 2026 reached 0.57 million hectares, up 35.72 per cent compared with January 2025’s 0.42 million hectares.

“The increase in harvest area was accompanied by a rise in paddy production reaching 3.04 million tonnes of GKG in January 2026, up 38.69 per cent compared with January 2025,” Ateng said.

He added that beyond rice, BPS also recorded increased maize production early this year. Actual maize harvest area in January 2026 reached 0.24 million hectares, an increase of approximately 11.17 per cent compared with January 2025.

“Maize production in the same period was recorded at 1.38 million tonnes of shelled maize at 14 per cent moisture content, up 11.09 per cent compared with the previous year,” he noted.