RI warned over aging population

RI warned over aging population

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia will have to anticipate the advent of a "boom in educated and elderly people" as opposed to a baby boom and all of its economic consequences, a noted demographer says.

Aris Ananta, deputy director of the University of Indonesia's Demography Institute, predicted that the size of the population aged 60 years and above will increase from 11.3 million in 1990, to 17.8 million in 2005, and to 28.8 million in 2020.

"The elderly will continue to consume but not produce. Who's going to support them?" Aris said in his oration to mark his induction as professor at the university's School of Economy on Wednesday.

In his paper entitled Demographic Transition in Indonesia: Several Problems and the Economic Prospects, Aris warned that a growing proportion of government spending and the gross national product would have to be allocated for the care of the elderly.

With good and proper care, he said, the nation can keep its senior citizens economically productive.

"The right strategy is to keep them employed. They need to remain healthy and intellectually alert so that they can remain productive."

"This way, instead of becoming a burden, they become an asset to the economy," he added.

He proposed intensifying the health campaign, designing jobs for the elderly, creating more comfortable means of public transportation and making the streets safer.

He suggested the application of "senior-citizen intensive technology" to create job opportunities in the industrial and service sectors.

Aris underlined that future senior citizens will have stronger educational backgrounds and will therefore have higher expectations.

The 40-year-old economics professor jokingly pointed out that he would part of next century's "elderly boom". "These elderly people, including myself, are the product of the baby boom of the 1950s, and we need to find appropriate jobs for them."

Soesmaliah Soewondo, who presided over the induction ceremony, said Aris still has some 35 years to go. "The government may extend the pension age of professors from 65 to 75."

Another trend which economic policymakers have to consider in relation to demographic changes in Indonesia is that more and more women aged 40 years and above are entering the job market, Aris said in his paper.

With the trend toward smaller families, he said many women will be looking for employment once their children complete primary school, which would be when these women are around 40 years old.

The women will be competing with the younger people, he said.

Aris said that in the future, Indonesian households will be employing domestic servants with higher educational backgrounds, due to a competitive job market and Indonesia's success in providing education for all.

He noted that most domestic servants in Jakarta already have a primary school education and that some even graduate from junior high school.

He said this is encouraging because it will elevate the status of the occupation in the future, when they should be able to use electronic goods and even work with computers.

Aris also gave a run down of the Demography Institute's population projections.

Of the various scenarios, the one chosen by the institute as the most likely projects the Indonesian population to increase from 194.8 million in 1995 to 209.5 million in 2000, 235 million in 2010, 254.2 million in 2020 and 261.4 million in 2025.

The projection assumes a declining population growth rate from 1.66 percent a year in 1990-1995 to 1.23 percent in 2000-2005, 0.88 percent in 2010-2115 and to 0.56 percent in 2020-2025.

This also has strong implications for population density, given that the population will still be most concentrated on Java.

Aris said the nationwide population density ratio will increase from the 1990 level of 93 people for every square kilometer to 132 in 2020. In Java, the density will increase from 813 people per square kilometer in 1990 to 1,093 in 2020. (anr)