RI warned over aging population<\/p>\n
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia will have to anticipate the advent of
\na \"boom in educated and elderly people\" as opposed to a baby boom
\nand all of its economic consequences, a noted demographer says.<\/p>\n
Aris Ananta, deputy director of the University of Indonesia's
\nDemography Institute, predicted that the size of the population
\naged 60 years and above will increase from 11.3 million in 1990,
\nto 17.8 million in 2005, and to 28.8 million in 2020.<\/p>\n
\"The elderly will continue to consume but not produce. Who's
\ngoing to support them?\" Aris said in his oration to mark his
\ninduction as professor at the university's School of Economy on
\nWednesday.<\/p>\n
In his paper entitled Demographic Transition in Indonesia:
\nSeveral Problems and the Economic Prospects, Aris warned that a
\ngrowing proportion of government spending and the gross national
\nproduct would have to be allocated for the care of the elderly.<\/p>\n
With good and proper care, he said, the nation can keep its
\nsenior citizens economically productive.<\/p>\n
\"The right strategy is to keep them employed. They need to
\nremain healthy and intellectually alert so that they can remain
\nproductive.\"<\/p>\n
\"This way, instead of becoming a burden, they become an asset
\nto the economy,\" he added.<\/p>\n
He proposed intensifying the health campaign, designing jobs
\nfor the elderly, creating more comfortable means of public
\ntransportation and making the streets safer.<\/p>\n
He suggested the application of \"senior-citizen intensive
\ntechnology\" to create job opportunities in the industrial and
\nservice sectors.<\/p>\n
Aris underlined that future senior citizens will have stronger
\neducational backgrounds and will therefore have higher
\nexpectations.<\/p>\n
The 40-year-old economics professor jokingly pointed out that
\nhe would part of next century's \"elderly boom\". \"These elderly
\npeople, including myself, are the product of the baby boom of the
\n1950s, and we need to find appropriate jobs for them.\"<\/p>\n
Soesmaliah Soewondo, who presided over the induction ceremony,
\nsaid Aris still has some 35 years to go. \"The government may
\nextend the pension age of professors from 65 to 75.\"<\/p>\n
Another trend which economic policymakers have to consider in
\nrelation to demographic changes in Indonesia is that more and
\nmore women aged 40 years and above are entering the job market,
\nAris said in his paper.<\/p>\n
With the trend toward smaller families, he said many women
\nwill be looking for employment once their children complete
\nprimary school, which would be when these women are around 40
\nyears old.<\/p>\n
The women will be competing with the younger people, he said.<\/p>\n
Aris said that in the future, Indonesian households will be
\nemploying domestic servants with higher educational backgrounds,
\ndue to a competitive job market and Indonesia's success in
\nproviding education for all.<\/p>\n
He noted that most domestic servants in Jakarta already have a
\nprimary school education and that some even graduate from junior
\nhigh school.<\/p>\n
He said this is encouraging because it will elevate the status
\nof the occupation in the future, when they should be able to use
\nelectronic goods and even work with computers.<\/p>\n
Aris also gave a run down of the Demography Institute's
\npopulation projections.<\/p>\n
Of the various scenarios, the one chosen by the institute as
\nthe most likely projects the Indonesian population to increase
\nfrom 194.8 million in 1995 to 209.5 million in 2000, 235 million
\nin 2010, 254.2 million in 2020 and 261.4 million in 2025.<\/p>\n
The projection assumes a declining population growth rate from
\n1.66 percent a year in 1990-1995 to 1.23 percent in 2000-2005,
\n0.88 percent in 2010-2115 and to 0.56 percent in 2020-2025.<\/p>\n
This also has strong implications for population density,
\ngiven that the population will still be most concentrated on
\nJava.<\/p>\n
Aris said the nationwide population density ratio will
\nincrease from the 1990 level of 93 people for every square
\nkilometer to 132 in 2020. In Java, the density will increase from
\n813 people per square kilometer in 1990 to 1,093 in 2020. (anr)<\/p>",
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