Review of Stock Recommendations and Projections for Vale Indonesia (INCO) in 2026 - Investasi Kontan

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) recorded impressive performance throughout 2025. Based on its financial report, INCO achieved revenue of US$990.19 million in 2025, an increase of 4.18% year-on-year (yoy) compared to US$950.38 million in the same period the previous year. In line with this, the cost of revenue also rose to US$879.34 million from US$842.16 million previously. From an operational perspective, operating expenses increased significantly to US$52.18 million from US$38.25 million previously. Additionally, other expenses rose to US$12.71 million from US$9.87 million. Meanwhile, other income saw a slight increase to US$3.92 million from US$3.72 million. Nevertheless, bottom-line performance continued to show strong improvement. This was supported by several non-operational items, including a gain from the fair value recognition of derivative assets that turned positive at US$16.57 million, reversing a previous loss of US$19.94 million. Additionally, financial income increased to US$37.26 million from US$36.2 million. INCO also recorded a gain from the fair value recognition of share investments amounting to US$6.68 million, as well as a contribution to profit from associates of US$607,000. With these various factors, pre-tax profit for INCO rose to US$94.53 million from US$74.06 million previously. After deducting income tax expenses of US$18.47 million, net profit for the year, or net income, for INCO reached US$76.06 million, soaring 31.68% from US$57.76 million in the previous period. 2025 Performance INCO President Director Bernardus Irmanto stated that operational performance throughout the previous year grew quite well. For example, nickel matte production reached 72,027 metric tons throughout 2025, up from 71,311 tons in 2024. On a quarterly basis, production in the fourth quarter of 2025 recorded nickel in matte at 17,052 tons, or about 12% lower compared to 19,391 tons in the third quarter of 2025. This decline was due to the rebuilding activities of Furnace 3, which began in November and are targeted to be completed in May 2026. If compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, when production reached 18,528 tons, the fourth quarter 2025 production was slightly lower, but overall annual production remained higher than the previous year. “This result reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to maintaining operational reliability and managing production efficiently throughout the year,” said Bernardus in his official statement on Monday (16/3/2026). Additionally, Vale’s nickel matte production continued to show commercial growth, particularly in sales of saprolite nickel ore from the Pomalaa and Bahodopi blocks. In 2025, saprolite ore sales reached 2,316,023 wet metric tons (wmt), with the highest monthly volume in October at 516,167 wmt. Overall, the Bahodopi Block contributed the largest share to saprolite ore sales throughout the year. Deliveries of Vale nickel matte also recorded a moderate increase in 2025, reaching 73,093 tons compared to 72,625 tons in 2024. This supported Vale in maintaining a solid EBITDA of US$228.2 million throughout the previous year, slightly higher than the previous year. The average realised price of nickel matte in 2025 was recorded at US$12,157 per ton, down 7% from US$13,086 per ton the previous year. Despite operating in weaker price conditions, the increase in the nickel matte payability rate that began applying in July last year, along with higher shipment volumes, drove revenue growth. “This reaffirms the company’s strong commitment together with shareholders in facing challenging market conditions and confidence in the long-term prospects of the industry,” said Bernardus. From a cost perspective, although INCO carried out major maintenance on one furnace and successfully maintained a competitive cash cost of sales at US$9,339 per ton in 2025, slightly lower than US$9,374 per ton the previous year. This improvement reflects strong cost discipline and results in the lowest annual cash cost level in the last four years, down from around US$11,201 per ton in 2022. Meanwhile, the cash cost of sales unit for Vale Indonesia’s nickel ore business remained stable in the range of US$17–US$19 per ton, including royalty and logistics costs for mixed saprolite ore. This figure reflects ore fully sourced from the Bahodopi block, given that sales from the Pomalaa block are still limited to bulk sampling test activities. Full mining activities in Pomalaa are estimated to begin in 2026. Vale Indonesia also explained that the 32% year-on-year increase in net profit to US$76.1 million reflects consistent operational improvements, stronger production levels, and a disciplined approach to cost efficiency. In the fourth quarter of last year, consumption of HSFO, diesel, and coal decreased in line with lower production volumes, following the start of the Furnace 3 rebuilding as an effort to maintain future production capacity and ensure operational safety. During that quarter, HSFO prices fell by 4%, while diesel and coal prices each experienced moderate increases of 6% and 1%. Throughout the year, Vale Indonesia allocated around US$485.9 million for capital expenditure, up 46% from US$332.1 million the previous year. This increase mainly reflects spending on development projects and sustaining capital needs. This development aligns with progress on the HPAL project, which has reached about 50% construction stage and marked an important milestone with the arrival of four autoclave units and the installation of the first unit. The project remains on track.