Reasons Behind the IHSG's Plunge of More Than 1%

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) opened down 1.08% or -76.53 points at 7,020.53 this morning, Monday (30/3/2026). Within minutes, the IHSG correction deepened to -1.65%.

A total of 251 stocks fell, 161 rose, and 546 remained unchanged. Trading value reached Rp404.2 billion, involving 341.2 million shares in 53,920 transactions.

The market is essentially awaiting clear signals such as a ceasefire in the Middle East, the reopening of major energy routes like the Strait of Hormuz, and oil prices falling back below US$80 per barrel.

As long as these factors do not materialise, the IHSG is likely to struggle for a significant rebound due to dominant external pressures. In the current conditions, the room for IHSG upside remains very limited due to the absence of strong positive global catalysts.

The escalation of the conflict is now entering a more complex phase with the emergence of double chokepoint risks.

Previously, the market focused only on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes; now attention is shifting to Bab el-Mandeb following the involvement of Yemen’s Houthi group in the conflict.

This route is a major Asia-Europe link via the Suez Canal and accounts for about 6-12% of global trade flows. If both routes are disrupted simultaneously, around 25-30% of global oil supply could be affected, increasing the risk of global inflation and heightening recession possibilities. In this scenario, oil prices could remain high for longer.

For Indonesia, this situation adds further pressure as high oil prices exceed the ideal fiscal comfort zone of below US$80 per barrel.

Assuming the state budget uses an oil price of US$70 per barrel, every US$10 increase could widen the deficit by about Rp51.8 trillion.

If oil prices reach US$100 per barrel, additional energy subsidies are estimated at Rp236 trillion, while additional revenues would only be around Rp81 trillion, potentially increasing the deficit by up to Rp155 trillion. This fiscal pressure ultimately burdens domestic stock market sentiment.

On the other hand, global dynamics are also influenced by the Fed’s policies, which aim to maintain inflation and employment but indirectly support financial system stability heavily reliant on liquidity.

Unfortunately, liquidity currently feels increasingly tight, where the impact of high oil prices will keep inflation hot, making a higher-for-longer interest rate scenario likely to persist until 2027.

Another indicator reinforcing this picture is the rise in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is now above 30, at its highest level since the beginning of the year.