Reasons Behind IHSG's 1% Jump This Morning
Several pieces of news from both domestic and international sources are serving as the primary sentiments for trading in the Indonesian stock market. This morning, the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) soared 1% to the level of 7,033.98. By 9:25 WIB, the IHSG was already up 1.44% to 7,056.90.
This week opened with a series of data releases directly impacting the main pulses of the domestic inflation market, trade balance, and US labour indicators. The direction of risky asset movements will heavily depend on whether price pressures ease and whether the global economy remains strong enough to withstand high interest rates.
The Central Statistics Agency is scheduled to release March inflation and trade balance data on Monday (4/5). Indonesia’s inflation is expected to rise monthly in April 2026, partly due to a spike in non-subsidised fuel prices.
The market consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 13 institutions estimates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April 2026 will see monthly inflation of 0.43% (month-to-month/mtm), with a median annual inflation of 2.72% (year-on-year/yoy).
Today, S&P Global will also announce Indonesia’s manufacturing activity for April 2026. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by S&P Global last month showed Indonesia’s PMI at 50.1 in March 2026. This figure is the lowest since July 2025 or the last eight months.
Although slowing, Indonesia’s PMI remains in the expansion phase for eight consecutive months.
The PMI uses 50 as the starting point. Above 50 means the business world is in an expansion phase. Below that, it indicates contraction.
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce Q1-2026 economic growth data on Tuesday (5/5/2026). This data is crucial in assessing the resilience of the Indonesian economy against global shocks in the early part of the year.
Economic growth in Q1-2026 is expected to remain high due to the impact of Eid al-Fitr and Ramadan, as well as the long holiday period.
As a note, Ramadan is the peak consumption period in Indonesia. In Q1-2025, the Indonesian economy grew 4.87% year-on-year (yoy), slowing from the same period the previous year and recording a 0.98% contraction compared to Q4-2024 (q-to-q).
Meanwhile, Asian stock exchanges showed varied movements at the start of this week. South Korean shares hit a new record, continuing a historic monthly rally after April.
Investors are still weighing tensions between Iran and the United States (US), as well as US plans to reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz.
Quoting CNBC International, the US is continuing efforts to free ships stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the Iran war. This statement was made by US President Trump in a post on Truth Social on Sunday (3/5/2026).
These efforts are called “Project Freedom”, scheduled to begin on Monday Middle East time. The main focus is to evacuate civilian ships flagged by countries not involved in the conflict from the disputed waters so they can continue their business activities freely and smoothly.
“US military support for Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 military personnel,” said the US Central Command shortly after Trump’s announcement, quoted on Monday (4/5/2026).
For information, oil prices fell after the “Project Freedom” announcement. The July West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract fell 0.59% to US$101.34 per barrel at 19:38 ET. The Brent crude oil futures contract fell 0.27% to US$107.88 per barrel.