Real War Threat: Its Impact on Indonesia's Fuel Supply

The closure of shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz, due to the Iran–Israel conflict involving the United States, has raised concerns about domestic energy supplies as Indonesia does not yet hold a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) like some advanced economies.

Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), Bhima Yudhistira, said Indonesia’s energy resilience remains vulnerable because of its heavy dependence on imported oil. This dependence heightens the risk of fuel shortages during a global energy crisis. He explained that Indonesia’s energy reserves are currently limited, so any geopolitical tension could immediately affect local fuel availability. However, expanding reserves from around 20 days to three months is not the main solution.

“Indonesia’s energy reserves are vulnerable. That is why an oil crisis could trigger a stockout of fuel. But the solution of increasing reserves from 20 days to three months is not a solution,” Bhima told CNBC Indonesia, quoted Friday (6 March 2026).

According to him, enlarging storage capacity would merely enlarge reserves but would not solve the core problem, as Indonesia would still rely heavily on oil imports. “The option is actually acceleration of electrification in the transport system and the energy transition. Public transport using electric buses in all regions; private vehicles should reduce their petrol consumption. The important thing is that public transport is affordable and comfortable so people switch over,” he said.

Separately, Komaidi Notonegoro, Executive Director of the ReforMiner Institute, said that globally, countries generally maintain energy reserves averaging three to six months to cope with potential disruptions to global supply. Developed nations even hold larger stockpiles. Yet building large-scale energy reserves is not only about crisis readiness; it also concerns a country’s fiscal capacity and the readiness of its infrastructure.

“Ideally in this context it involves multiple aspects — not only to avoid a crisis but also in terms of fiscal ability and whether the infrastructure is ready. The realities vary from one country to another,” Komaidi said.

Komaidi also detailed that the costs of storing fuel are very high. For example, storing one day’s fuel stock requires a budget allocation of around Rp2.5 trillion to Rp3 trillion. In other words, if Indonesia wants to hold 30 days of energy, the required budget could reach around Rp60 trillion to Rp90 trillion solely for storage costs and the value of the goods.

“Currently we have 20-25 days, but that stock is not government-owned; rather, it is operational stock of enterprises that are in inventory and not yet sold. For enterprises, keeping money tied up for a long period is burdensome,” he said.