Ramos has limited goals on Spratlys

Ramos has limited goals on Spratlys

By Cecil Morella

MANILA (AFP): The odds may be prohibitive for the Philippines
in any South China Sea confrontation, but by taking on China over
the disputed Spratlys, President Fidel Ramos has attained limited
but important objectives, analysts say.

After three years of foot-dragging, Congress approved post-
haste an act authorizing defense procurements of up to 50 billion
pesos (two billion dollars) after Manila raised an alarm over the
Chinese navy's occupation of Philippine-claimed Mischief Reef.

But Philippine hopes for a strong and unified backing from its
neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
have so far been mixed, complicated by the fact that three of its
members -- Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines -- are also
claimants.

"We have no plans to get involved in the present situation,"
Malaysian Defense Minister Najib Tun Razak told reporters in
Kuala Lumpur last weekend.

One week after Ramos boldly announced the dispatch of
reinforcements to the Philippine occupied island, only Vietnam, a
would-be ASEAN member and an ancient rival of China, outrightly
condemned China's "expansionist act."

A foreign ministry spokesman in Hanoi said Monday that it
favored "securing the existing situation" in the disputed chain
and that disputes should be settled by peaceful negotiations.

"The merit of Ramos' gamble is that it impresses on Asia and
the United States that whether we go it alone or not on the
Spratlys their fate is tied with us -- whether we win or lose,"
political analyst Amando Doronila wrote in the Philippine
Inquirer newspaper.

"Even if the Philippines' ASEAN partners will not aid us
militarily or even make public expressions of support, Chinese
aggression will force ASEAN to close ranks out of fear and
intensify the establishment of a regional mechanism for resolving
disputes peacefully," he added.

Members of ASEAN -- Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Singapore and Thailand -- have individually voiced
their concern over the conflict.

The archipelago sits on reputed oil-rich waters near strategic
sea lanes and are also claimed in whole or in part by China,
Taiwan and Vietnam.

Institute for Strategic and Development Studies scholar Noel
Morada said it was instructive to note that the Mischief Reef
push is part of China's claim over the entire South China Sea,
and that it was the first time it has moved on an area claimed by
any ASEAN member.

"It is a test case in finding out how ASEAN will react," he
told AFP.

He said ASEAN members' invoking of a 1992 Manila Declaration
seeking restraint and the peaceful solution to the dispute
"somehow indicates there is a united position and they are
directly supportive of the Philippine position."

Doronila and Morada agreed with other analysts that an actual
shooting war was unlikely between the strongest and the weakest
military powers in East Asia, with Morada saying that "regardless
of how ASEAN will react," Beijing would not budge from the reef
short of a successful air strike.

"With its continuous pronouncements the Philippine government
is in fact exploiting world opinion. China is now in a defensive
position and other countries are watching how China will
respond," Morada said.

But he said ASEAN should be wary of perceptions that it was
aligning itself with Vietnam, which would bolster Beijing's
suspicions that ASEAN is forming an anti-China bloc.

Morada said that through Manila's efforts the Spratlys issue
will "definitely be addressed" in the next ASEAN foreign
ministers' meeting in Brunei in midyear and in the ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF) on security that will follow there.

China, along with the United States are key "dialogue
partners" of ASEAN in these annual meetings.