Ramos has limited goals on Spratlys

Ramos has limited goals on Spratlys

By Cecil Morella

MANILA (AFP): The odds may be prohibitive for the Philippines in any South China Sea confrontation, but by taking on China over the disputed Spratlys, President Fidel Ramos has attained limited but important objectives, analysts say.

After three years of foot-dragging, Congress approved post- haste an act authorizing defense procurements of up to 50 billion pesos (two billion dollars) after Manila raised an alarm over the Chinese navy's occupation of Philippine-claimed Mischief Reef.

But Philippine hopes for a strong and unified backing from its neighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have so far been mixed, complicated by the fact that three of its members -- Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines -- are also claimants.

"We have no plans to get involved in the present situation," Malaysian Defense Minister Najib Tun Razak told reporters in Kuala Lumpur last weekend.

One week after Ramos boldly announced the dispatch of reinforcements to the Philippine occupied island, only Vietnam, a would-be ASEAN member and an ancient rival of China, outrightly condemned China's "expansionist act."

A foreign ministry spokesman in Hanoi said Monday that it favored "securing the existing situation" in the disputed chain and that disputes should be settled by peaceful negotiations.

"The merit of Ramos' gamble is that it impresses on Asia and the United States that whether we go it alone or not on the Spratlys their fate is tied with us -- whether we win or lose," political analyst Amando Doronila wrote in the Philippine Inquirer newspaper.

"Even if the Philippines' ASEAN partners will not aid us militarily or even make public expressions of support, Chinese aggression will force ASEAN to close ranks out of fear and intensify the establishment of a regional mechanism for resolving disputes peacefully," he added.

Members of ASEAN -- Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand -- have individually voiced their concern over the conflict.

The archipelago sits on reputed oil-rich waters near strategic sea lanes and are also claimed in whole or in part by China, Taiwan and Vietnam.

Institute for Strategic and Development Studies scholar Noel Morada said it was instructive to note that the Mischief Reef push is part of China's claim over the entire South China Sea, and that it was the first time it has moved on an area claimed by any ASEAN member.

"It is a test case in finding out how ASEAN will react," he told AFP.

He said ASEAN members' invoking of a 1992 Manila Declaration seeking restraint and the peaceful solution to the dispute "somehow indicates there is a united position and they are directly supportive of the Philippine position."

Doronila and Morada agreed with other analysts that an actual shooting war was unlikely between the strongest and the weakest military powers in East Asia, with Morada saying that "regardless of how ASEAN will react," Beijing would not budge from the reef short of a successful air strike.

"With its continuous pronouncements the Philippine government is in fact exploiting world opinion. China is now in a defensive position and other countries are watching how China will respond," Morada said.

But he said ASEAN should be wary of perceptions that it was aligning itself with Vietnam, which would bolster Beijing's suspicions that ASEAN is forming an anti-China bloc.

Morada said that through Manila's efforts the Spratlys issue will "definitely be addressed" in the next ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting in Brunei in midyear and in the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) on security that will follow there.

China, along with the United States are key "dialogue partners" of ASEAN in these annual meetings.