Ramos has limited goals on Spratlys<\/p>\n
By Cecil Morella<\/p>\n
MANILA (AFP): The odds may be prohibitive for the Philippines
\nin any South China Sea confrontation, but by taking on China over
\nthe disputed Spratlys, President Fidel Ramos has attained limited
\nbut important objectives, analysts say.<\/p>\n
After three years of foot-dragging, Congress approved post-
\nhaste an act authorizing defense procurements of up to 50 billion
\npesos (two billion dollars) after Manila raised an alarm over the
\nChinese navy's occupation of Philippine-claimed Mischief Reef.<\/p>\n
But Philippine hopes for a strong and unified backing from its
\nneighbors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
\nhave so far been mixed, complicated by the fact that three of its
\nmembers -- Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines -- are also
\nclaimants.<\/p>\n
"We have no plans to get involved in the present situation,"
\nMalaysian Defense Minister Najib Tun Razak told reporters in
\nKuala Lumpur last weekend.<\/p>\n
One week after Ramos boldly announced the dispatch of
\nreinforcements to the Philippine occupied island, only Vietnam, a
\nwould-be ASEAN member and an ancient rival of China, outrightly
\ncondemned China's "expansionist act."<\/p>\n
A foreign ministry spokesman in Hanoi said Monday that it
\nfavored "securing the existing situation" in the disputed chain
\nand that disputes should be settled by peaceful negotiations.<\/p>\n
"The merit of Ramos' gamble is that it impresses on Asia and
\nthe United States that whether we go it alone or not on the
\nSpratlys their fate is tied with us -- whether we win or lose,"
\npolitical analyst Amando Doronila wrote in the Philippine
\nInquirer newspaper.<\/p>\n
"Even if the Philippines' ASEAN partners will not aid us
\nmilitarily or even make public expressions of support, Chinese
\naggression will force ASEAN to close ranks out of fear and
\nintensify the establishment of a regional mechanism for resolving
\ndisputes peacefully," he added.<\/p>\n
Members of ASEAN -- Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the
\nPhilippines, Singapore and Thailand -- have individually voiced
\ntheir concern over the conflict.<\/p>\n
The archipelago sits on reputed oil-rich waters near strategic
\nsea lanes and are also claimed in whole or in part by China,
\nTaiwan and Vietnam.<\/p>\n
Institute for Strategic and Development Studies scholar Noel
\nMorada said it was instructive to note that the Mischief Reef
\npush is part of China's claim over the entire South China Sea,
\nand that it was the first time it has moved on an area claimed by
\nany ASEAN member.<\/p>\n
"It is a test case in finding out how ASEAN will react," he
\ntold AFP.<\/p>\n
He said ASEAN members' invoking of a 1992 Manila Declaration
\nseeking restraint and the peaceful solution to the dispute
\n"somehow indicates there is a united position and they are
\ndirectly supportive of the Philippine position."<\/p>\n
Doronila and Morada agreed with other analysts that an actual
\nshooting war was unlikely between the strongest and the weakest
\nmilitary powers in East Asia, with Morada saying that "regardless
\nof how ASEAN will react," Beijing would not budge from the reef
\nshort of a successful air strike.<\/p>\n
"With its continuous pronouncements the Philippine government
\nis in fact exploiting world opinion. China is now in a defensive
\nposition and other countries are watching how China will
\nrespond," Morada said.<\/p>\n
But he said ASEAN should be wary of perceptions that it was
\naligning itself with Vietnam, which would bolster Beijing's
\nsuspicions that ASEAN is forming an anti-China bloc.<\/p>\n
Morada said that through Manila's efforts the Spratlys issue
\nwill "definitely be addressed" in the next ASEAN foreign
\nministers' meeting in Brunei in midyear and in the ASEAN Regional
\nForum (ARF) on security that will follow there.<\/p>\n
China, along with the United States are key "dialogue
\npartners" of ASEAN in these annual meetings.<\/p>",
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