Rainy Season 2026: How Long Will It Last? Early Dry Season Forecast
Most of Indonesia is still in the rainy season. BMKG expects the rainy season in several regions of Indonesia to end in March 2026.
Kepala BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani states that the La Niña phenomenon currently underway is expected to weaken through March 2026. He says that climate conditions in Indonesia are predicted to return to normal from April to the end of the year.
‘From April to the end of the year, it will tend to be normal, there is no El Niño, there is no La Niña, so normal,’ Faisal said after a meeting with Commission V of the DPR at the parliamentary complex, Senayan, Jakarta, on Wednesday 28 January 2026.
According to Faisal, for the Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara regions, the rainy season is expected to end around late February to March. After this period, those areas are predicted to enter the dry season which lasts until around September before the rains return in October.
He also explained that climate characteristics vary across different parts of Indonesia. Regions such as Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, and West Sumatra have a pattern of two rainy seasons and two dry seasons in a year, so seasonal transitions do not always align with those in southern Indonesia.
Prediction Early Dry Season 2026
The 2026 dry season in Indonesia is predicted to arrive earlier than climatologists’ average. In BMKG’s press release, Wednesday 5 March 2026, BMKG notes that 114 Seasonal Zones or about 16.3 per cent of Indonesia is predicted to begin the dry season in April 2026.
Those areas include the western Java coastal plain on the northern coast, parts of Central Java through East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and a small portion of Kalimantan and Sulawesi.
According to Deputy for Climatology at BMKG Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, 184 Seasonal Zones or about 26.3 per cent of the region are expected to enter the dry season in May 2026. Then around 163 Seasonal Zones or 23.3 per cent of other areas will follow in June 2026.
BMKG also notes that nearly half of Indonesia is predicted to experience an earlier start to the dry season than usual. These areas include most of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southern and eastern Kalimantan, most of Sulawesi, Maluku, and parts of Papua.
Predicted Peak of Dry Season 2026
Based on BMKG analysis, the peak of the dry season in most areas of Indonesia is predicted to occur in August 2026, covering 429 ZOM or about 61.4 per cent of Indonesia. Other regions will peak in July (12.6%) and September (14.3%).
Areas entering the peak in July include parts of Sumatra, central and northern Kalimantan, and extending to a small portion of Java, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku, and western Papua.
In August, the reach of the peak dryness expands significantly. This dry condition will dominate central and southern Sumatra, Central Java through East Java, most of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, all of Bali and Nusa Tenggara, and parts of Maluku and Papua.
In September, the peak of the dry season is still felt in parts of Lampung, small parts of Java, and most of NTT. In addition, the peak will also be felt in northern and eastern Sulawesi, most of North Maluku, parts of Maluku, and a small part of Papua.
Anticipating Dry Season Risks
In response to various risks that may occur during the 2026 dry season, Faisal emphasises the importance of anticipatory measures for ministries, agencies, local governments, and all layers of society. In the agricultural sector, farmers should promptly adjust sowing schedules by choosing varieties that are more water-efficient, drought-tolerant, and with shorter harvest cycles.
‘This measure must be accompanied by strengthening the water resources sector through revitalisation of dams and improvements to distribution networks to ensure clean water for domestic needs as well as operations of hydroelectric plants in the energy sector,’ he said.
Beyond water management, awareness of environmental impacts also remains a priority. Local governments should prepare rapid response mechanisms to address deteriorating air quality and increase preparedness in the forestry sector to prevent forest and land fires (karhutla).
‘MBMKG emphasises that all predictive information is a form of early warning that must be translated into real action by stakeholders in order to minimise drought disaster risks in Indonesia,’ he concluded.