Purbaya's Response Amid Rupiah and Stock Index Pressure
The Indonesian rupiah depreciated 0.14 per cent to the level of 16,949 at the close of trading on Monday, 9 March 2026. Meanwhile, the Composite Stock Index (IHSG) tumbled 3.27 per cent to 7,337.3.
The rupiah exchange rate briefly touched 17,000 per US dollar on Monday morning, whilst the IHSG fell 2.79 per cent to 7,374 at the opening of trading.
The weakening of the rupiah and plunge in the IHSG occurred amid the Iran versus Israel-America conflict which drove world crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel. However, the Finance Minister believes the decline was triggered by sentiment from economists worried about economic recession.
“The rupiah at 17,000, the IHSG plummeted. Because some economist friends say we’re already in recession, heading towards 1998 again. Purchasing power is destroyed,” said Purbaya at Tanah Abang, Jakarta, on Tuesday, 9 March 2026.
Purbaya assured that the economy would continue to expand and acceleration would be maintained over the coming weeks. “So, stock market investors, don’t need to be afraid. We’re protecting our foundation properly,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ibrahim Assuabi, Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, predicted that on Tuesday’s trading, the rupiah would be volatile, but would close weaker in the range of 16,950-17,000 per US dollar.
The sentiment driving this is the Middle Eastern conflict which has shown no signs of abating, as well as global crude oil prices which have surged up to 30 per cent beyond USD 100 per barrel and are approaching the highest levels seen at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
This figure far exceeds the macroeconomic assumption in the 2026 state budget which only set crude prices around USD 70 per barrel. This condition risks increasing the deficit by approximately Rp 6.8 trillion.
“If crude oil prices continue to surge towards or even exceed USD 100 per barrel, the impact will be fatal for national finances. The state budget deficit to GDP could potentially rise to nearly 4 per cent,” he said in a written statement.