Purbaya's Calculation: Oil Price at US$150 per Barrel, Trump Could Fall
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has emphasised that predictions by economists and observers claiming that global oil prices could surpass US$200 per barrel are unrealistic.
According to him, if oil prices reached US$200 per barrel, nearly every country in the world would risk falling into a recession. Moreover, the sentiment driving these predictions is not based on sound economic calculations. Purbaya stated that economists mentioning the Indonesian economy…
“If oil prices hit 200 dollars per barrel, the whole world goes into recession. Stay calm. No need to worry. So the assumption is unreasonable,” Purbaya told reporters, as quoted on Monday (30/3/2026).
He even gave an example of how political stability in the United States has already been shaken by global oil prices reaching US$100 per barrel.
“Look at what’s happening now in America, they’re already struggling, right? Even at 100 dollars, fuel prices there have risen nearly 100 percent. The people are starting to get angry,” he said.
Purbaya even predicted that if global oil prices truly surged to US$150 per barrel, the impact could shake the leadership of US President Donald Trump.
“That’s why Trump’s steps are a bit different, right? Up to 150? Trump falls already. Not us who fall there. We must be protected here,” he said.
As is known, oil prices closed at their highest level in more than three years on Friday (27/3/2026), due to Trump’s negotiation efforts with Iran failing to ease market concerns over major supply disruptions in the Middle East.
According to Refinitiv, Brent crude prices, the global benchmark, traded at US$112.57 per barrel on Friday (27/3/2026), up 4.2%. This is the highest since 4 July 2022 (US$113.5 per barrel), or nearly four years.
Oil prices rose because Trump’s move to give Iran a 10-day extension to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz failed to calm supply concerns.
Trump stated on social media that talks with Iran were going very well, despite misleading statements from fake news media and other parties.
As part of the announcement, Trump said he would temporarily halt attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure until 6 April. Iran has not yet commented on this latest statement.