Purbaya Reveals APBN Stress Test Results: Can the Budget Withstand US$150 Oil?
Jakarta — Crude oil prices remain volatile amid ongoing conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran since late February 2026.
After surging above US$100 per barrel yesterday, prices have declined today. Brent crude, the benchmark reference, has moved to US$92.30 per barrel as of 10.15 WIB, whilst West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stands at US$88.69 per barrel, according to Refinitiv data.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has stressed that because oil prices fluctuate daily, the government does not use world crude prices as the benchmark for determining fiscal policy, such as adjustments to fuel prices and subsidies, to protect the state budget deficit.
“So, colleagues, do not hastily conclude that prices will remain at US$100. Even if you say US$150 and our budget cannot handle it, we will continue to assess it from time to time,” Purbaya said after inspecting Tanah Abang market in Jakarta on Monday (9 March 2026).
When crude prices breached US$113.68 per barrel yesterday, Purbaya also emphasised that this had not yet disrupted domestic economic activity.
“I have not yet seen disruptions to domestic economic activity because of the high rise in prices. But it is still early,” he said.
Purbaya stressed that all parties should not rush to conclude that current crude price movements will remain elevated over the long term, thereby affecting domestic price levels.
He further emphasised that daily movements in crude prices do not immediately disturb the government’s fiscal position, as their effects only become apparent over monthly periods.
The Ministry of Finance has conducted a risk assessment, or stress test, of oil prices against the national budget deficit. The stress test uses average annual oil prices rather than daily fluctuations.
According to Purbaya’s stress test, if the average annual crude oil price reaches US$92 per barrel, the budget deficit will exceed the safe threshold of 3%, reaching 3.6% of GDP.
“So, it is still below that. Therefore, we remain calm for now. What is clear is that we continue to monitor from time to time and I will not delay making decisions if necessary,” Purbaya said.