Purbaya Outlines Scenario If Oil Price Reaches US$92 per Barrel

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the ministry has modelled a scenario where world oil prices average US$92 per barrel for a year. He said that if world oil prices stay at US$92 per barrel for the year, the deficit of the State Budget (APBN) could exceed 3 percent. ‘We have done the exercise; if the price is US$92 for the year on average, since the APBN is annual, the deficit would be 3.6 percent or more,’ Purbaya told reporters at the Ministry of Finance in Jakarta on Friday, 6 March 2026. However, he said the widening deficit would only occur if the government does not take anticipatory measures. Purbaya said the government can still take steps to trim spending in inefficient budget lines. Purbaya noted that under normal conditions world oil prices are around US$60 per barrel. The Ministry also calculated a second worst-case scenario if world oil prices rise to US$72 per barrel. According to Purbaya, if that happens, the fiscal condition remains safe. Meanwhile, prices reaching US$92 per barrel are the worst-case scenario. The country’s treasurer noted Indonesia has previously experienced world oil prices hitting US$150 per barrel. He said the economic conditions at that time slowed, but did not lead to a crisis. Purbaya added that if world oil prices rise too high and burden the budget, the government would consider raising fuel prices, but to date the government has not discussed adjustments to subsidised fuel prices. ‘Not yet. Because I say, now our budget is still safe,’ Purbaya said. World oil prices surged sharply in the past week amid rising tensions in the Middle East disrupting global energy supply routes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict between Iran and the United States–Israel bloc was the main trigger for the price surge. According to Trading Economics data, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose to US$84 per barrel on Friday, 6 March 2026. Week-on-week, the US benchmark jumped about 21 percent, the largest weekly gain since 2020. Meanwhile, Brent crude also rose. The global benchmark price was reported at US$85.41 per barrel, up about 4.93 percent or roughly US$4.01. Nandito Putra contributed to this article.