Purbaya Optimistic Indonesia's Economy Will Expand Healthily Through 2033

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa expressed optimism that Indonesia’s economy will enter a phase of healthy expansion over the next seven to ten years, or at least through 2033.

Speaking after the Indonesia Economic Outlook 2026 event at Wisma Danantara, Jakarta, last Friday, Purbaya assured that Indonesia’s economic prospects will also be better this year, with the government aiming to push economic growth to 6 percent.

“Over the next ten years, it looks like we’re entering a healthy expansion phase. We can sustain this expansion through 2033,” said Purbaya.

Along with the expansion phase, Purbaya also believes more job opportunities will become available. He is confident this optimistic economic trajectory can be achieved by prioritizing sound fiscal management. The government will drive measured state spending while ensuring the deficit-to-GDP ratio remains below the 3 percent threshold. Additionally, the debt ratio will be maintained at a stable level and gradually directed downward.

“I think that when the economy improves, our tax and customs revenue will also improve, so we can slowly bring our debt down,” he said.

Earlier, during a panel discussion at the same event, Purbaya explained that economic cycles generally move from expansion to recession and back to expansion again. The expansion phase typically lasts between seven and ten years, followed by a recession of about one year before returning to growth.

He noted that Indonesia experienced an expansion phase from 2009 to 2020, then entered a recession due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is now back in an expansion phase.

The leading economic index (LEI), which projects the economic direction six to twelve months ahead, had indeed declined, Purbaya said. However, in recent months it has begun to show an upward trend. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI), which reflects current economic conditions, has also started to move upward, he acknowledged.

Purbaya said that the increasing gradient in both indices indicates the economy will enter a faster growth phase. With the right policy direction and management, Purbaya is optimistic this momentum can continue through 2033. He therefore urged the public not to worry about the medium-term economic outlook.

“So it appears there is a strong possibility that we can steer Indonesia’s economy toward a Golden Indonesia, not a bleak Indonesia,” he said.