Purbaya: Oil Price at US$150/Barrel Would Fell Trump, Not Indonesia

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa believes that the conflict in the Middle East between Iran, the United States, and Israel, which is causing fluctuations in global oil prices, will not end in an economic recession. He stated that even the leaders of the countries driving the war are already under pressure and plan to take steps to stabilise oil prices. That leader is US President Donald Trump. “Just look. Even now, America is already struggling, right? At $100, their fuel prices rise by nearly 100%, and the public is starting to get angry. That’s why Trump’s approach is a bit different, right? Up to $150? Trump would fall. It’s not us who would fall, but over there,” Purbaya explained at his office in Jakarta on Wednesday (25/3/2026). For Indonesia, he said the country is still able to maintain domestic economic stability, even though oil prices often rise above the 2026 state budget macro assumption of US$70 per barrel. “If we can still keep it stable here,” Purbaya said. Therefore, Purbaya appeared annoyed in responding to statements from several economic observers who frequently claim that Indonesia’s economy will experience a recession in the coming months. According to him, such statements are not constructive criticism of the government but merely aimed at creating negative sentiment or fear among the public. “I’m not against criticism, that’s fine. But don’t say things like this: in two months, Indonesia’s economy will collapse. It will be in recession,” Purbaya said. Moreover, the sentiment being built is not based on proper economic calculations. Purbaya said that economists claiming Indonesia’s economy will collapse in two months only consider the rise in global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. “The reason is because oil prices will reach $200 per barrel, the rupiah will be tens of thousands, yes, if oil is $200 per barrel, the whole world will be in recession, rest assured, no need to worry,” Purbaya said. “So the assumption is unreasonable. So that’s not a proper economist,” he stressed. Purbaya said that if economists properly calculate risk factors, they would consider all risk estimates, from historical data to government policies that have been made in responding to global pressures. “That’s the calculation. If economists are like that, don’t make assumptions. If you don’t understand, go back to school, especially those professors, they never went to school,” he revealed.