Purbaya: Indonesian Crude Oil Price Still Below 2026 State Budget Assumption
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has stated that the average price of crude oil in Indonesia, known as Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), remains below the assumption set in the 2026 state budget (APBN). This addresses concerns about sharp increases in global crude oil prices, which briefly exceeded USD 100 per barrel.
Purbaya noted that the realisation of Indonesian crude oil prices through February stood at USD 68.8 per barrel. Based on government estimates, he said, the average ICP realisation year-to-date through 11 March 2026 was approximately USD 68 per barrel, accounting for recent spikes above USD 100.
“This remains below the APBN assumption set at USD 70 per barrel (approximately Rp1,180,000). Therefore, there is still fiscal space available to anticipate risks from rising prices in the implementation of the 2026 APBN,” the Finance Minister said during an APBN Kita press conference at the Finance Ministry office in Jakarta on Wednesday (11 March).
“Yesterday, many people asked: oil prices have reached USD 100, will the government immediately revise the APBN? Not yet, because looking at this, the average is still USD 68,” he added.
This means, according to Purbaya, Indonesia’s fiscal position remains sound. “If circumstances become more pressing in the future, we will adjust the APBN, but we are starting from a position of strong budgetary management. So, friends need not worry,” he explained.
The ministry assured that efforts to optimise oil and gas production continue to be monitored to support the sustainability of the energy sector and strengthen national fiscal resilience going forward.
Meanwhile, the Director General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy at the Finance Ministry, Febrio Kacaribu, stated that the government is not hasty in adjusting the APBN and continues to monitor the global situation.
“Year on year, we always manage the APBN comprehensively. It is not one-dimensional, as in ‘if oil prices rise then this will happen’. If oil prices rise we also ask: by how much have coal prices risen? By how much has CPO price risen?” said Febrio.
According to him, in preparing for crude oil price fluctuations in the global market, APBN management is very flexible.