Purbaya Deems World Bank's Economic Growth Projection Wrong
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the World Bank has erred in calculating Indonesia’s economic growth projection for 2026. This remark followed the latest World Bank release predicting Indonesia’s economic growth this year at only 4.7 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), lower than the previous estimate.
Based on Purbaya’s calculations, Indonesia’s economy is estimated to grow by around 5.5-5.6 per cent or more in the first quarter alone. The State Treasurer stated that if this prediction is linked to the World Bank’s latest figures, it means the World Bank is calculating that Indonesia will experience a recession.
“A sharp drop afterwards, if the average is to 4.7. I think the World Bank has miscalculated,” said Purbaya after the Open Session of the Debottlenecking Task Force at the Ministry of Finance office in Jakarta, Thursday, 9 April 2026.
Finance Minister Purbaya stated that the current downward projection is due to the rise in global oil prices, which is only temporary. The government’s current task is to ensure that programmes continue to run, and the financial system is ready to support economic growth and improvements in the investment climate. Through these efforts, he is optimistic that economic growth will turn around.
The World Bank has cut Indonesia’s economic growth projection for 2026 to just 4.7 per cent against gross domestic product (GDP). Previously, in October 2026, the World Bank predicted Indonesia’s economy would grow by 4.8 per cent against GDP.
This change in projection was outlined in the April 2026 edition of the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) Economic Update publication. “Indonesia’s economic growth is projected to slow to 4.7 per cent, due to obstacles from rising oil prices and risk aversion sentiment,” as quoted from the report released by the World Bank on 8 April 2026.
This figure is also lower compared to Indonesia’s economic growth of 5.1 per cent. Meanwhile, for 2027, the World Bank predicts Indonesia’s economic growth will be higher, reaching 5.2 per cent.