Purbaya Confident Indonesia's Q1 Economic Growth Will Break Through 6 Per Cent
The Minister of Finance, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, has stated that Indonesia’s economy is currently in a robust expansion phase, capable of withstanding pressures from global economic turbulence. Purbaya has urged the public not to worry about the impacts of escalating geopolitical conflicts, including tensions between the United States, Israel and Iran.
“So friends, there’s no need to worry. We can manage the negative impacts well going forward because we’re in a strong position,” Purbaya said at a press conference on the State Budget (APBN) at his office in Central Jakarta on Wednesday, 11 March 2026.
Purbaya stated that domestic macroeconomic stability remains intact amid heightened global geopolitical tensions. The government is optimistic that economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 can reach between 5.5 and 6 per cent.
He noted this achievement could be higher compared to fourth-quarter 2025 economic growth, which reached 5.39 per cent. According to him, faster growth at the beginning of the year reflects strengthening economic activity.
Purbaya also outlined several indicators showing the economy is still performing positively. One example is the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which reached 53.8 in February 2026, the highest level in the past two years.
On the external front, economic resilience remains solid. Purbaya noted that Indonesia’s trade balance has recorded a surplus for 69 consecutive months. Additionally, foreign exchange reserves are at an adequate level of USD 152 billion.
He assessed that economic activity began strengthening from the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025, with this trend continuing into early 2026. This condition is seen as reinforcing public confidence whilst supporting national economic growth.
Purbaya also said consumer spending is showing improvement, particularly ahead of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr. This is reflected in the Mandiri Spending Index, which reached 360.7 in February 2026.
According to him, the increase in the index was primarily driven by higher consumption in consumer goods, education and people’s mobility sectors.
Additionally, several domestic consumption indicators are also showing positive trends. Retail sales continue to grow, whilst the consumer confidence index remains at a high level.
Purbaya assessed that these conditions demonstrate that household consumption remains solid and public expectations regarding the economic situation remain optimistic.
He also highlighted the automotive sector’s performance, which reflects improvement in consumer purchasing power. Car sales grew in double digits at 12.2 per cent in February 2026. Meanwhile, motorcycle sales also continued to show positive growth of around 1 per cent.
According to Purbaya, these indicators demonstrate tangible improvement in consumer purchasing power. The government estimates this trend will continue to improve in the coming period.