Purbaya Asserts Prediction of Oil Price at US$200 Is Unreasonable!

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has asserted that predictions by economists and observers claiming that global oil prices could surpass US$200 per barrel are unrealistic. Observers suggest this scenario could trigger a recession in Indonesia.

Purbaya expressed frustration in response to statements from several economic observers who frequently claim that Indonesia’s economy will experience a recession in the coming months.

According to him, such statements are not constructive criticism of the government but rather an attempt to foster negative sentiment or fear among the public.

“I am not against criticism; that’s fine. But don’t say things like this: in two months, Indonesia’s economy will collapse. It will be a recession,” said Purbaya at the Ministry of Finance office, quoted on Friday (27/3/2026).

Moreover, the sentiment being built lacks a proper economic basis. Purbaya stated that economists predicting Indonesia’s economy will collapse in two months are only considering the rise in global oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.

“The reason is because oil prices will reach US$200 per barrel, the rupiah will be tens of thousands, yes, if oil is US$200 per barrel, the whole world will be in recession, rest assured, no need to worry,” said Purbaya.

“So the assumption is unreasonable. So that’s not a proper economist,” he emphasised.

Purbaya said that if economists properly account for risk factors, they would consider all risk estimates, from historical data to government policies that have been implemented in responding to global pressures.

This is not the first time Purbaya has expressed anger over the US$200 per barrel scenario. Previously, when met at the State Palace on Thursday (27/3/2026), Purbaya revealed that an oil price increase to US$200 per barrel is impossible. Even if it occurs, it would not last long.