Purbaya and Airlangga Optimistic about Strong Economic Growth in Q1 2026
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The government unanimously projects that Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 will remain strong amid global pressures, ranging from 5.5 percent to 5.7 percent.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa estimates that Indonesia’s economic growth in the first quarter of this year could reach 5.6 percent to 5.7 percent, supported by public consumption during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr.
“Economic growth could be 5.6–5.7 percent, if it’s a rough estimate. That’s pretty good, given the current global turbulence,” he said at the Directorate General of Taxation office in Jakarta on Saturday (21/3/2026).
According to him, one of the steps taken is to maintain energy subsidy stability so that global price fluctuations are not directly felt by the public.
“The current global impact is not yet felt because it is absorbed by the government. We are ensuring that the public can carry out normal activities,” he said.
Going forward, the government will focus on strengthening domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth, including through bolstering the private sector and maintaining public purchasing power.
“We will ensure that government spending that must be disbursed is done on time,” said Purbaya.
In line with that, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto projects economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 to be in the range of 5.5 percent.
He assesses that this optimism is driven by strong economic activity during Ramadan, reflected in increased public consumption.
With a combination of government spending, energy price stability, and sustained household consumption, the government is confident that Indonesia’s economic growth at the beginning of this year will remain resilient amid global uncertainties.
He also highlighted inflation dynamics that are likely to be higher compared to the first quarter of last year.
This is due to the absence of the 50 percent electricity tariff discount programme that previously suppressed inflation throughout January-February 2025.
Although inflationary pressures are expected to increase, the government is optimistic that public purchasing power and increased consumption during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr will maintain growth momentum.
“Last year, up to February, there was an electricity tariff discount. So that made last year’s inflation in terms of electricity deflationary. This year, because there is no (electricity tariff discount), the figure will be higher,” he said.