Provocateurs suspected behind East Timor violence

Provocateurs suspected behind East Timor violence

Agence France-Presse, Dili

East Timor, still grappling with chronic unemployment and poverty
six months after independence fueled unrealistically high hopes,
was according to one analyst "a dry field into which someone
threw a match."

United Nations and government officials are investigating who
threw the match which sparked off a day of rioting, arson and
looting last Wednesday.

The violence -- in which two people died and 25 were injured
-- was the worst since Indonesian troops and their militia
proxies withdrew in 1999, trashing much of the country as they
left. It caught UN peacekeepers and local police off guard.

"We all become complacent," said Colin Stewart, a former head
of political affairs with the previous UN administration.
"There had been nothing like this in three years although there
were many peaceful demonstrations. Nobody was expecting this."

Stewart said that while the police and military were not
geared up to cope, "1,500 very agitated people would have been a
major challenge to any police force."

Government and UN officials and some analysts agree the
violence was far more than a simple student protest against
police which got out of control.

UN special representative Kamalesh Sharma said last Friday it
"appeared to be part of a planned attack against selected targets
throughout Dili."

Internal Affairs Minister Rogerio Lobato has blamed people
linked to a group called CDP-RDTL and called the violence a plot
to overthrow the government.

Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta said former pro-Jakarta
militias were involved although he did not suggest they were
acting under Indonesia's orders.

CDP-RDTL (whose initials in Portuguese stand for the Popular
Defense Committee - Democratic Republic of East Timor) is a
fringe group made up of disaffected former members of Fretilin,
which spearheaded the fight for independence against Indonesia
and is now the ruling party.

The group believes that only the original independence
declaration made on Nov. 28, 1975 -- nine days before Indonesia
invaded -- is valid and that all subsequent political
developments are unconstitutional.

"There is circumstantial evidence they played a role but I'm
not confident to say you can blame it all on them," said one
analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

He said no one could claim to know exactly what the violence
was all about.

"But it had very little to do with the students. They were the
spark and other people with other agendas got on the bandwagon."

The analyst said some political figures had been very vocal in
criticizing the newly created police force, especially over
recruitment.

Many former guerrillas from the independence war have been
turned down for the force at a time when a government job -- or
any job -- is highly sought after.

"People for their own self-interest are trying to gain
political positions. One local leader who is trying to replace
the chief of police was seen to be involved in these events," the
analyst said.

High unemployment, approaching 80 percent for young people,
and continuing poverty was a contributing factor. But the analyst
said there were "clearly provocateurs in the crowd directing them
to certain places like (Prime Minister) Mari Alkatiri's house,"
which was set ablaze.

He and other residents said most East Timorese appeared
ashamed of the violence.

"This was a minority that for short-sighted or selfish reasons
did a lot of damage to the country," the analyst said.

Investors might pull out, donors would be discouraged, many
foreigners would be less eager to come in and the democratic
government had been shaken, he said.

"In the eyes of the world everyone had high hopes for this
country. This is a pretty big bump on the road."

Another long-term observer said a climate of uncertainty
contributed to the unrest. He said the resignation last month of
Bishop Carlos Ximenes Belo, "a massively respected figure,
created a great sense of insecurity."