Prolonged Dry Season Feared to Disrupt Agricultural Production

The government is confronted with policy dilemmas, none of which are entirely comfortable. The BMKG forecasts the potential for a prolonged dry season due to the El Nino phenomenon this year. In response, Aris Slamet Widodo, a lecturer in agribusiness at Universitas Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta (UMY), emphasised the importance of the agricultural sector’s preparedness in facing the prolonged dry season. “The agricultural sector’s readiness to face the prolonged dry season varies. Some regions already have adaptations such as technical irrigation and the use of drought-resistant varieties, but many farmers still depend on rain and are thus highly vulnerable,” he stated on Wednesday (8/4). He noted that the prolonged dry season is predicted to directly impact crop productivity. Limited water supply can reduce harvests and even cause planting failures in areas without irrigation support. Additionally, dry conditions could increase pest attacks and lower the quality of agricultural produce. “The most felt impact is the decline in harvest yields,” he added. In areas without irrigation water supply, the prolonged dry season will result in planting failures and even harvest failures. Moreover, during dry periods, pest attacks such as rats and planthoppers typically increase. “Drought also causes a decline in product quality, such as the appearance of empty grains or smaller product sizes,” he further explained. Crops that require a lot of water will experience the greatest stress during the prolonged dry season, such as rice and horticultural crops that are sensitive to changes in soil moisture. “Horticultural crops like chillies and tomatoes are also sensitive to drought. Maize is affected mainly in the early planting phase, while young plantation crops such as coffee, cocoa, and oil palm also need to be anticipated, including the potential for fires in plantation areas,” Aris clarified. He also conveyed that the impacts of the prolonged dry season not only affect the quantity of agricultural output but also its quality and production sustainability. Equitable preparedness and the distribution of accurate climate information are key factors in minimising the risk of declining food production during the El Nino period. Recalling the extent of burnt land and the massive impacts of forest fires in Indonesia in 2015 due to the extreme El Nino phenomenon or Godzilla El Nino. Indonesia has experienced the Godzilla El Nino phenomenon in 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, which triggered extreme drought and severe land and forest fires. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman stated that the government is preparing a budget of up to Rp4 trillion for the pump irrigation programme as a strategic step to address the potential impacts of El Nino. In Cianjur Regency, West Java, preparations are underway to face the potential dry season, particularly readiness in the agricultural sector, which is predicted to be affected. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman has urged local governments to immediately map agricultural areas that are potentially prone to drought.