Prepare for Volatile IHSG Amid Global Conflict; Here are Movement Projections
Jakarta – Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas (IPOT) Imam Gunadi has projected that the Indonesian Composite Index (IHSG) will move volatilely with a consolidation tendency this week due to increasing geopolitical risks at the global level.
“The IHSG this week has the potential to move volatilely with a consolidation tendency, with support at 8,031 and resistance at 8,437,” said Imam in an official statement in Jakarta on Monday (2 March 2026).
Imam noted that escalating conflicts between Iran, Israel and the United States, as well as tensions in the South Asian region, are increasing global risk premiums, particularly as the situation around the Strait of Hormuz – a vital global energy distribution route – continues to develop.
“This uncertainty could potentially drive strengthening of the US dollar and increases in energy commodity prices, which typically trigger fund rotation towards safe-haven assets and suppress capital inflows to emerging markets, including Indonesia,” said Imam.
However, for the IHSG, he stated that rising oil and coal prices could actually support the energy and mining sectors, particularly if commodity prices remain elevated.
According to him, Indonesia as an exporter of coal and several energy commodities could potentially benefit from increases in average selling prices and potential margin improvements for related sector issuers.
“In uncertain global conditions, commodity-based equities often become a hedge proxy against geopolitical risks and global inflation,” said Imam.
On the other hand, if conflict escalation causes excessively sharp and prolonged energy price spikes, he warned that global inflation risks and rupiah exchange rate pressures could increase.
He continued that significant oil price increases could magnify pressure on the current account balance through higher energy import values, whilst simultaneously increasing rupiah volatility.
“If the rupiah weakens and global bond yields rise, then IHSG volatility could increase as foreign investors tend to reduce exposure to risky assets,” said Imam.
Thus, in the short term, he concluded that the direction of IHSG movement is heavily dependent on whether energy price increases are controlled and supportive for commodity issuers, or instead become inflationary shocks that undermine macro stability.
Imam explained that rising tensions in the Middle East coinciding with continuously changing US trade policy, coupled with credit rating agencies warning of increasing fiscal pressures in Indonesia, create multiple headwinds.
“This combination of issues creates a cautious condition in both global and domestic financial markets,” said Imam.
The economic consequences of Middle Eastern escalation are felt globally through developments at the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which is a crucial transit route for approximately 20–25 per cent of global crude oil and LNG supplies daily.
Closure or disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could rock global energy markets, as this route typically facilitates crude oil and gas trade reaching tens of millions of barrels per day, with impacts on oil prices, energy supply chains, and shipping insurance costs that could spike sharply.
Amid increasing global uncertainty, US economic policy underwent significant changes last week.
The US Supreme Court annulled most global import tariffs previously imposed by Donald Trump’s administration, deemed to have exceeded legal authority, forcing the US administration to seek new legal grounds to maintain some of those tariff policies.
Trump subsequently announced plans to raise global import tariffs to 15 per cent in response to the annulment.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Commerce imposed anti-subsidy duties on solar panels from several countries, including Indonesia, with tariff ranges between 86 per cent and 143.3 per cent, citing what it deemed harmful subsidies to US domestic industry.
“These high tariff provisions could suppress Indonesia’s renewable energy sector exports to the US market and add pressure to the trade balance of related sectors,” said Imam.
Domestically, credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings has warned that Indonesia’s fiscal pressures continue to mount, with the debt interest payment-to-government revenue ratio estimated to have already reached or potentially be sustaining above the 15 per cent level – a critical threshold in assessing a country’s fiscal health.
Should this ratio remain elevated in the medium term, potential credit rating downgrades could occur, even though the current outlook remains stable.
“This warning adds to investor and policymaker caution in responding to global turbulence whilst managing domestic fiscal challenges,” said Imam.
Meanwhile, as early March 2026 approaches, several important economic data releases are expected, including Indonesia’s Manufacturing PMI for February 2026, Indonesia’s Trade Balance for January 2026, Indonesia’s Inflation for February 2026, and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February 2026.
Additionally, the US ISM Services PMI for February 2026, China’s NBS PMI for February 2026, initial US jobless claims for 28 February, Indonesia’s Foreign Exchange Reserves, US non-farm payrolls, and the US unemployment rate.