Predictions for Eid al-Fitr 2026 by Government, BMKG, NU, and Muhammadiyah: What Date?
As the month of Ramadan draws to a close, the determination of the date of 1 Syawal becomes the most anticipated matter for Muslims. This certainty will determine when Eid al-Fitr 1447 H or Lebaran 2026 will be celebrated, marking the completion of the obligation to fast after fulfilling it for a full month.
In Indonesia, the process of determining the beginning of Syawal is always marked by differences in calculation methods. These differences are employed by several parties, including the Government, BMKG (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics), and two major Islamic organisations, namely Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah.
These methodological differences potentially lead to variations in the date of celebrating Eid al-Fitr 1447 H or Lebaran 2026. Therefore, below is information about the predictions according to the Government, BMKG, NU, and Muhammadiyah.
Government Prediction for Lebaran 2026
To date, the government has not officially set the date for celebrating Lebaran 2026. The certainty regarding Eid al-Fitr will only be decided through an isbat session scheduled for Thursday, 19 March 2026 at the HM Rasjidi Auditorium, Office of the Ministry of Religion, Jakarta, beginning at 16:00 WIB.
In Indonesia, the determination of the hilal (crescent moon) is based on criteria agreed upon by the Ministers of Religion from Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore (MABIMS). According to the Indonesian Ministry of Religion website, the latest MABIMS criteria stipulates that the hilal is deemed to meet the requirements for sighting if it has a minimum height of 3 degrees with an elongation angle reaching 6.4 degrees.
Although the official decision is awaiting the isbat session, an indication of the estimated date for Lebaran can be seen through the Indonesian Hijri Calendar published by the Directorate General of Islamic Community Guidance (Bimas) of the Ministry of Religion. In this calendar, 1 Syawal 1447 H is estimated to fall on Saturday, 21 March 2026.
BMKG Prediction for Lebaran 2026
In determining the beginning of the Islamic month, conjunction or ijtimak is important to note as it marks the astronomical new moon phase. According to BMKG, the conjunction or ijtimak will occur on Thursday, 19 March 2026 at 08:23:23 WIB.
Based on BMKG calculations, the position of the hilal when the sun sets in Indonesia on 19 March 2026 is estimated to still be quite low. The height of the hilal ranges from 0.91 degrees in Merauke to 3.13 degrees in Sabang. Meanwhile, the elongation or angular distance between the moon and sun is estimated to range from 4.54 degrees in Waris, Papua, to 6.1 degrees in Banda Aceh. The age of the moon when the sun sets is estimated to range from 7.41 hours to 10.44 hours.
This means that the calculations show the position of the hilal is still at the minimum observation boundary. Therefore, the results of hilal sighting to be conducted at various points in Indonesia are crucial in determining whether the hilal can be seen or not.
NU Prediction for Lebaran 2026
Like the government, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) has also not yet set the date for Lebaran 2026. NU will issue its decision on the beginning of Syawal 1447 H or Lebaran 2026 after conducting hilal observation at the end of the coming Ramadan. If the hilal is sighted, then Syawal begins at that time. However, if it is not, then Ramadan 2026 is completed with 30 days.
According to the NU Online website, Nahdlatul Ulama uses the Rukyatul Hilal Bil Fi’li method. This method is similar to the calculations performed by the Government and BMKG. Therefore, NU’s decision is usually in line with the results of the government’s isbat session.
According to the NU Almanac, 1 Syawal 1447 H corresponds with Saturday, 21 March 2026. This means that NU predicts Ramadan 2026 will last exactly 30 days, precisely matching the government’s prediction.
Muhammadiyah’s Determination of Lebaran 2026
Unlike the Government and NU, which emphasise rukyat or sighting, Muhammadiyah uses the Hisab Hakiki Wujudul Hilal method in determining the beginning of the Islamic month. This method relies on mathematical astronomical calculations without waiting for direct observation of the hilal.
Because it uses this calculation system, the dates of major Islamic celebrations according to Muhammadiyah can generally be determined well in advance. Through this calculation, the determination of the beginning of the Islamic month can be predicted earlier without having to wait for the rukyat process.
Therefore, Muhammadiyah has previously set the schedule for Eid al-Fitr 1447 H/2026 through the Statement of the Muhammadiyah Central Leadership Number 2/MLM/I.0/E/2025 concerning the determination of the results of hisab for Ramadan, Syawal, and Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 H. In this statement, it is stated that 1 Syawal 1447 H falls on Friday, 20 March 2026.
This means that for those who begin fasting Ramadan 1447 H on Wednesday, 18 February 2026, or in short, those following Muhammadiyah, Lebaran 2026 will fall on Friday, 20 March 2026.
Thus, there is a possibility of different schedules for celebrating Lebaran 2026 in Indonesia. Muhammadiyah has determined that Eid al-Fitr 1447 H falls on Friday, 20 March 2026 based on the hisab method. Meanwhile, the government through the Ministry of Religion and NU are still awaiting the results of sighting before making a decision. However, both estimate Lebaran 2026 to coincide with Saturday, 21 March 2026.
This explains the schedule of Lebaran 2026 according to the Government, BMKG, NU, and Muhammadiyah. We hope this is helpful!