Positive US Jobs Data Release: What It Means for Indonesia?

US employment data from ADP for February 2026 show an improvement over the prior month. Private-sector hiring in the United States in February was slightly better than forecast. According to the ADP report released on Wednesday, 4 March 2025, the private sector added 63,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis. This figure was well above January’s revised gain of 11,000 jobs and exceeded the Dow Jones consensus of 48,000 jobs.

Market analyst and capital market practitioner Hans Kwee believes US private payroll data may be in the range of 50,000 to 60,000 in February 2026. The figure is higher than January’s revised 22,000 and December 2025’s 37,000.

“The US private payroll data (ADP) appears likely to rise to around 50,000–60,000 in February, higher than last month’s 22,000 and December’s 37,000,” he told Kompas.com on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. However, that sentiment is not exactly encouraging.

According to him, stronger payroll data could keep the Fed from cutting rates quickly. In other words, expectations for monetary easing could move back.

“If the payroll data is strong, it supports the potential for Fed rate cuts to be slower,” he explained.

Hans added that the projection for Fed rate cuts has shifted from June to September 2026.

This is compounded by rising geopolitical tensions due to the Iran–Israel war, which could push oil prices higher and global inflation.

“Moreover, geopolitical tensions could push inflation higher as oil prices potentially spike. So inflationary pressure could increase,” he said.

Regarding its impact on gold prices, Hans explained that bullion is currently under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar index.

“Gold is under pressure as the US dollar index rises. But this is a short-term phenomenon,” he added.