Positive Performance Trend of Nickel Issuers Poised to Continue into 2026
JAKARTA. The majority of nickel producer issuers have published their 2025 financial reports with fairly positive results. This serves as valuable capital for them as they enter 2026, when nickel commodity prices are on a positive trend.
One nickel issuer, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO), recorded a 4.18% year-on-year (yoy) revenue increase to US$990.19 million in 2025. INCO’s net profit for the year also grew 31.68% yoy to US$76.06 million.
Additionally, PT Central Omega Resources Tbk (DKFT) achieved a 7.87% yoy sales increase to Rp1.58 trillion in 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent entity’s owners rose 56.89% yoy to Rp574.39 billion.
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) also noted a 56% yoy performance increase in its nickel segment revenue to Rp14.85 trillion in 2025, where this segment contributed 18% to the company’s total revenue.
Only PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk (MBMA) faced performance pressure in the form of a 22.28% yoy revenue decline to US$1.43 billion in 2025. However, MBMA’s net profit attributable to the parent entity’s owners still grew 29.76% yoy to US$29.56 million.
Arinda Izzaty, analyst at Pilarmas Investindo Sekuritas, stated that the performance improvement in nickel issuers indeed reflects the dynamics of global nickel prices and operational activities throughout the year. Although nickel prices were pressured at the start of 2025 due to oversupply, particularly from Indonesia and China, price recovery in the second half, along with cost efficiencies and increased production volumes, drove profit growth for issuers like INCO, DKFT, and NICL.
Moreover, ANTM benefited from increased domestic nickel ore sales in line with the massive downstreaming projects. “MBMA’s performance decline indicates that exposure to selling prices and cost structures remains a crucial factor,” she said on Monday (6/4).
Arinda continued that the outlook for nickel issuers’ performance tends to be positive in 2026, along with nickel prices rising to around US$17,000 per tonne, driven by potential improvements in demand for stainless steel products and electric vehicle batteries.
However, the performance of nickel producer issuers will still be influenced by factors such as global nickel price stability, export-import policies, energy costs, and the sustainability of downstreaming projects. “The downstreaming trend is expected to strengthen further due to more stable margins and higher added value compared to upstream businesses,” she added.
David Kurniawan, Equity Analyst at PT Indo Premier Sekuritas, assessed that when nickel prices climb to the range of US$17,000–US$19,500 per tonne, profit margins for issuers in the sector are predicted to widen further. Issuers also have the opportunity to minimise risks from raw nickel ore price volatility if they can execute downstreaming projects for the commodity.
On the other hand, nickel producer issuers also need to beware of the threat of rupiah depreciation to Rp17,000 per US dollar. “Currency weakening could inflate import costs for spare parts and heavy equipment logistics,” he said on Monday (6/4).
According to David, nickel producer issuers poised to deliver superior performance in 2026 are those with the lowest production costs (low-cost producers) and clear offtake agreements with smelters or global battery producers.
Meanwhile, Arinda opined that nickel issuers likely to become leaders in 2026 are those with integrated business models from upstream to downstream and exposure to high-value-added products like nickel matte or battery raw materials. This is because products in the downstream segment tend to have more stable margins and are less sensitive to fluctuations in raw ore prices.
In addition, issuers with high cost efficiencies, large nickel reserves, and strategic partnerships with global companies will be more resilient and able to achieve more consistent growth.
On a sectoral level, nickel issuer stocks remain attractive for consideration, especially for medium- to long-term oriented investors looking to capitalise on the major theme of energy transition and electric vehicles. However, stock selection must be selective, focusing on fundamentals, cost structures, and positioning in the downstream value chain.
From there, Arinda recommends buying INCO shares with a target price of Rp7,800 per share.
On the other hand, David considers the nickel sector quite attractive for medium-term investment in line with the green energy narrative. ANTM shares are seen as quite appealing due to aggressive growth in the nickel segment performance. INCO shares can also be a choice for investors thanks to operational efficiency advantages.
Attractive options also point to MBMA and NICL shares. MBMA has potential for performance recovery post-major investments, while NICL offers appeal due to highly consistent upstream nickel business performance.