Poll results boost Golkar change for the presidency

Jusuf Wanandi, Co-founder and Member, Board of Trustees Center for Strategic and International Studies, (CSIS) Jakarta

With the expected victory of the Golkar Party in the legislative election of April 5, the party would become the biggest faction of the House of Representatives (DPR).

For Golkar, this would entail some heavy responsibilities. Party supporters would surely pressure the Golkar leadership to also assume the lead in the House, which has become a powerful institution under the new Constitution.

Pressure would also mount for a Golkar leader to take over the presidency from Megawati Soekarnoputri. Her Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) may become the number two faction of the House.

The legislative election has indeed given Golkar real momentum and a political boost as its chances of securing the presidential seat have increased.

That means that the Golkar convention to elect the party's presidential candidate could also influence the future of the country.

Almost all political groups are of the opinion that there is a need for a new national leader. Future challenges will be more complex, and the incumbent president is perceived to be incapable of accomplishing such heavy tasks.

Golkar has undergone significant changes and its leaders are astute and experienced in governing. The party has consolidated and has come up with young leaders, sobered by the mistakes it made during the Soeharto era. With a new mandate from those who voted for Golkar on April 5, the party will be up to the challenge of governing the country.

There are seemingly two front-runners for Golkar's presidential candidate, namely Akbar Tandjung (leader of Golkar and speaker of the House) and Wiranto (former commander of the Indonesian Military).

Akbar Tandjung seems to have the best qualifications. He is experienced in government, an astute politician and former leader of the Muslim Student Union -- and he has balanced views.

As the leader of Golkar, he has been able to consolidate and reform the party. But against him, is his alleged involvement in a corruption case -- albeit not for himself but supposedly for B.J. Habibie's presidential election in 1999. However, he has been acquitted of the charge by the Supreme Court.

After the painful experience of facing the court, he appears to be determined to formulate a solid and credible anticorruption program, as well as appointing credible people to implement his anticorruption drive and to enforce the law if he were to be elected president.

Wiranto has a lot of money behind him and has made use of his followers, among whom are former Army people, who had earlier been appointed leaders of Golkar's provincial branches. But his candidacy would be a disaster for Indonesia. The entire international community, particularly the West and Japan would not welcome his election.

Spearheaded by the media and non-governmental organizations (NGOs)/civil societies all over the world, Indonesia would be isolated from the international community and would not get the necessary assistance and foreign investment that the country so badly needs.

The governments of the West would not openly oppose his candidacy, but Wiranto would face tremendous pressures from the media, NGOs, and politicians (U.S. Congress, and other parliamentary bodies). In the end, he could be arrested as in the case of former Chilean president Augusto Pinochet in London several years ago.

As is known, Wiranto had already been implicated by the United Nations attorney for serious crimes in East Timor in the form of human rights violations. These were allegedly committed by Indonesian troops and the militia under the Indonesian Military (TNI) during the riots in the aftermath of the referendum in 1999, when he was commander of the Armed Forces.

He had been warned about abuses and riots that might take place before, during and after the referendum but he had assured the international community that nothing would happen.

Wiranto did not, however, act firmly to prevent such abuses or was unable to do so. But as commander of the military he was responsible for those human rights violations.

Neither did he show leadership and do anything as the commander of the TNI when the May riots of 1988 broke out in Jakarta, in which over 1000 people were estimated to have died. During the riots, many Chinese-Indonesians were blatantly persecuted in what could be described as one of the gravest tragedies of the country's history. Instead Wiranto left for East Java on the same morning that mass riots erupted in the capital city.

In fact, later during the special session of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) in 1998 (and in the 1999 DPR session), he unleashed the "militia" (Pamswakarsa) that he had created -- consisting of extreme elements of religious groups and other dubious elements of society -- to go up against the students who were then demonstrating in opposition to the Habibie government.

Hence, the shootings and killings of some students at the Semanggi Cloverleaf Bridge, near Atma Jaya University in 1998 (and again in 1999, in front of the Jakarta Hospital) took place when the Armed Forces were under Wiranto's command.

No wonder that, even in Indonesia, Wiranto would face formidable opposition from students, civilians and the mass media if he were to be elected presidential candidate of the Golkar Party.

Golkar representatives who will elect the party's presidential candidate in the convention therefore shoulder great responsibility -- for the future of the country and the nation. The chances that their candidate could win the presidential election -- as long as the right candidate is chosen -- are now better than ever.

Another criteria that a Golkar candidate should meet is the ability to win against President Megawati, who is expected to be the other finalist of the possible second round of the presidential election on Sept. 20.

This would finally depend mainly on the unity and hard work of the Golkar Party -- and its possible coalition partners -- in supporting the candidate elected by the convention, and on the credibility of the programs that the Golkar candidate would promote.