PDI Perjuangan, Golkar have chance to form coalition

PDI Perjuangan, Golkar have chance to form coalition

Ridwan Max Sijabat
Writer staff
The Jakarta Post
Jakarta
Ridwan@thejakartapost.com

The large number of political parties, and the fragmentation
of around 147 million eligible voters, have indicated that no
party will win a simple majority in the legislative election
scheduled for April 5. But several major parties are expected to
win a sizable vote that will force them to form an alliance or
coalition, so that they can nominate strong presidential and vice
presidential candidates in order to win 50 percent of the vote-
plus one in the first round of the presidential election on July
5.

The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P),
Golkar Party, the United Development Party (PPP), National
Awakening Party (PKB), National Mandate Party (PAN) and several
newcomers, including the Democratic Party and Prosperous Justice
Party (PKS), have stepped up their campaigns to win as many votes
as possible in the legislative election.

The PDI-P and Golkar have targeted to win 25 percent to 30
percent of seats in the legislature, a little more than what gave
them their simple victory in the 1999 election, while the other
parties aim to win 3 percent to 17 percent of seats.

The legislative election has a strong link with the
presidential election because it will be difficult for a
president to rule unless the person is supported by a majority of
the legislature (DPR). This is why party leaders have gone all
out to win as many seats as possible in the DPR.

The political configuration resulting from the legislative
election will pave the way for the PDI-P and Golkar to form a
strong coalition. President Megawati Soekarnoputri, fighting for
a second term in office, would find it difficult to form a
pairing with former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid, who
will be nominated by the PKB and supported by the largest Muslim
organization, Nahdlatul Ulama, or with Amien Rais of PAN,
supported by Muhammadiyah.

Megawati will face a strong rival for the presidency if the
PKB makes a political maneuver to support former top security
minister Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who will be nominated by the
Democratic Party.

Golkar, which is expected to officially nominate party
chairman Akbar Tandjung, would gain political advantage in a
coalition with the PDI-P.

These two nationalist parties are intensifying their political
deals as a precursor to forming a coalition after the legislative
election.

Despite her weaknesses, Megawati faces fewer problems than
other presidential candidates in winning the first-ever direct
presidential election. Besides having the full support of the
PDI-P, Megawati apparently has the backing of both the Indonesian
Military (TNI) and the National Police, and has received an
endorsement from the wider world, especially the United States,
to win the presidential election for a second term.

Before hundreds of thousands of PDI-P supporters in Lampung
and North Sulawesi last week, Megawati insisted that she wanted
to have a politician with a good track record as her running mate
in the presidential election and was determined to win majority
support in the first round.

Elite figures from both the PDI-P and Golkar have, for a long
time, been paving the way to forming a coalition to win the
presidential election, but the lobbying has still been on an
informal level, pending the legislative election results. Both
Taufik Kiemas, Megawati's husband and an influential leader
within the PDI-P, and Akbar, a strong presidential candidate from
Golkar, have hinted at a possible coalition, although this has
sparked strong protest and opposition from both the parties, and
the move is seen as premature.

Golkar, which also expects to win a sizable vote in the
legislative election, will not respond immediately to the offer
of a possible coalition with the PDI-P for, besides waiting for
the election results, the party still has to select its
presidential candidate through a convention, to be held after the
legislative election.

With his recent acquittal from corruption by the Supreme
Court, Akbar, with the support by most party chapters, has a
great chance to win the presidential convention. However, will
Akbar and Golkar accept it if the PDI-P invites him to be a
running mate for Megawati to contend the presidential election?

Taking into consideration all factors, including the track
records of the two parties and their presidential candidates,
Golkar, given its poor reputation during the New Order era under
Soeharto, will have little chance to fight for the top position.
Golkar will likely have to settle for a nomination to the
nation's second position.

The other main consideration for Golkar and the PDI-P in
forming a strong coalition is that the two parties will not wish
to have to go through to the second round of the presidential
election on Sept. 5, which would leave the country in a long
period of political uncertainty.

It would certainly be more beneficial, both politically and
economically, if the nation had a president and vice president
supported by a majority of the electorate in the first-round
election in early July.