PDI-P to win general election, says analyst

A. Junaidi and Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Despite the smaller number of election contenders, the results of the upcoming polls in April 2004 will be more or less a repeat of 1999, which saw the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI- P) finish first, a political expert said.

Ichlasul Amal, a professor of politics at Gadjah Mada University, said the decline in the number of contenders in the 2004 polls would not significantly affect the results as the electoral threshold had been increased from 2 percent in 1999 to 3 percent next year.

"There were only six parties that met the electoral threshold in the last election, and the outcome next year will not be very different," Amal told a seminar in Surabaya as quoted by Antara.

He placed his bet on President Megawati's PDI-P as the party that would win the most votes next year as almost all contenders would maintain their core values to lure traditional voters.

Although many supporters may have been disappointed with Megawati's performance, Amal said, they would not abandon the party due emotional and traditional ties.

"Both old political parties and new parties are still exploiting people's fondness for nostalgia in their election campaigns. So the votes for old parties will not decline," Amal, who is also chairman of the National Press Council, said.

PDI-P won 34 percent of the vote in 1999 to hand Golkar, the ruling party during former president Soeharto's three-decade term, its first ever defeat with 25 percent of the vote. But political maneuvering cost PDI-P the presidency to benefit the National Awakening Party, which only finished fourth behind the United Development Party.

Another speaker, Daniel Sparringa, shared Amal's opinion, saying the next general election would still be marked by the rivalry among four political ideologies: nationalist, Islam, socialist and mixed politics.

"The parties will not build a coalition in the legislative election, but they will join forces in the presidential election for tactical reasons," Daniel of the Surabaya-based Airlangga University said.

Indonesia will hold the legislative election on April. 5 while the presidential election will take place on July 5, with a possible second phase on Sept. 20.

Daniel predicted people would be more interested in the direct presidential election rather than the election of House of Representatives and the Regional Representatives Council members.

"People are disappointed with the promises of politicians that have never been fulfilled. So they are just waiting for the presidential election," he said.

Meanwhile, political observer Hermawan Sulistyo from the Indonesian Institute of Science (LIPI) predicted the next elections would see small but sporadic conflicts.

He said there may be conflicts in several areas in the country, including East Java, Central Java, Jakarta, North Sumatra and Lampung.

In Jakarta another LIPI political analyst Indria Samego warned of the return of the military to politics if the upcoming elections failed to lead the country to democracy.

"If no significant changes take place after the upcoming elections, it might create chaos, which may open the door for the military to step in and take control."

Indria said people still relied on the military due to their ability to manage an organization.

A number of retired Army generals, including Wiranto, Try Sutrisno, Edi Sudrajat, Rudini, Wismoyo Arismunandar and R. Hartono are affiliated to a number of political parties for the upcoming elections.